Forecasting of cohort fertility by educational level in countries with limited data availability: the case of Brazil

Batyra, Ewa, Leone, Tiziana ORCID: 0000-0001-9671-5382 and Myrskylä, Mikko (2022) Forecasting of cohort fertility by educational level in countries with limited data availability: the case of Brazil. Population Studies. ISSN 0032-4728

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Abstract

The Brazilian period total fertility rate (PTFR) dropped to 1.8 in 2010 (1.5 among those with high education). Due to shifts in fertility timing, the PTFR may provide a misleading picture of fertility levels. The consequences of these changes for the cohort total fertility rate (CTFR)—a measure free from tempo distortions—and for educational differences in completed fertility remain unknown. Due to data limitations, CTFR forecasts in low- and middle-income countries are rare. We use Brazilian censuses to reconstruct fertility rates indirectly and forecast the CTFR for all women and by educational level. Four forecasting methods indicate that the CTFR is unlikely to fall to the level of the PTFR. Educational differences in the CTFR are likely to be stark, at 0.7–0.9, larger than in many high-income countries with comparable CTFRs. We show how the CTFR can be forecasted in settings with limited data and call for more research on educational differences in completed fertility in low- and middle-income countries.

Item Type:	Article
Official URL:	https://www.tandfonline.com/journals/rpst20
Additional Information:	© 2022 The Authors
Divisions:	International Development
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions
JEL classification:	J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J11 - Demographic Trends and Forecasts J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J13 - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
Date Deposited:	15 Sep 2022 13:42
Last Modified:	30 Nov 2024 08:03
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/116627

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