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Childhood individual and family modifiable risk factors for criminal conviction: a 7-year cohort study from Brazil

Ziebold, Carolina, Evans-Lacko, Sara ORCID: 0000-0003-4691-2630, Andrade, Mário César Rezende, Hoffmann, Maurício Scopel, Fonseca, Lais, Barbosa, Matheus Ghossain, Pan, Pedro Mario, Miguel, Euripedes, Bressan, Rodrigo Affonseca, Rohde, Luis Augusto, Salum, Giovanni Abrahão, de Jesus Mari, Jair and Gadelha, Ary (2022) Childhood individual and family modifiable risk factors for criminal conviction: a 7-year cohort study from Brazil. Scientific Reports, 12 (1). ISSN 2045-2322

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Identification Number: 10.1038/s41598-022-13975-8


Crime is a major public problem in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and its preventive measures could have great social impact. The extent to which multiple modifiable risk factors among children and families influence juvenile criminal conviction in an LMIC remains unexplored; however, it is necessary to identify prevention targets. This study examined the association between 22 modifiable individual and family exposures assessed in childhood (5–14 years, n = 2511) and criminal conviction at a 7-year follow-up (13–21 years, n = 1905, 76% retention rate) in a cohort of young people in Brazil. Population attributable risk fraction (PARF) was computed for significant risk factors. Criminal convictions were reported for 81 (4.3%) youths. Although most children living in poverty did not present criminal conviction (89%), poverty at baseline was the only modifiable risk factor significantly associated with crime (OR 4.14, 99.8% CI 1.38–12.46) with a PARF of 22.5% (95% CI 5.9–36.1%). It suggests that preventing children’s exposure to poverty would reduce nearly a quarter of subsequent criminal convictions. These findings highlight the importance of poverty in criminal conviction, as it includes several deprivations and suggest that poverty eradication interventions during childhood may be crucial for reducing crime among Brazilian youth.

Item Type: Article
Official URL:
Additional Information: © 2022 The Authors
Divisions: Personal Social Services Research Unit
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HV Social pathology. Social and public welfare. Criminology
H Social Sciences > HQ The family. Marriage. Woman
Date Deposited: 17 Aug 2022 15:54
Last Modified: 14 Sep 2022 09:45

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