How accurate are the polls when forecasting election outcomes well into the future?

Whiteley, Paul (2022) How accurate are the polls when forecasting election outcomes well into the future? British Politics and Policy at LSE (12 Jul 2022). Blog Entry.

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Abstract

Paul Whiteley correlates Labour and Conservative vote intentions data with the actual polling day results in all UK general elections since 1945. Among his findings is the fact that the Conservative vote share consistently appears to be more predictable than that of Labour, suggesting that Labour support is more volatile than Conservative support.

Item Type:	Online resource (Blog Entry)
Official URL:	https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/
Additional Information:	© 2022 The Author
Divisions:	LSE
Subjects:	J Political Science > JN Political institutions (Europe) > JN101 Great Britain J Political Science > JF Political institutions (General)
Date Deposited:	19 Aug 2022 10:06
Last Modified:	14 Sep 2024 03:35
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/115875

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