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Minority report: the impact of predicted grades on university admissions of disadvantaged groups

Murphy, Richard and Wyness, Gill (2020) Minority report: the impact of predicted grades on university admissions of disadvantaged groups. Education Economics, 28 (4). pp. 333-350. ISSN 0964-5292

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Identification Number: 10.1080/09645292.2020.1761945

Abstract

We study the UK's university application system, in which students apply based on predicted examination grades, rather than actual results. Using three years of UK university applications data we find that only 16% of applicants’ predicted grades are accurate, with 75% of applicants having over-predicted grades. However, high-attaining, disadvantaged students are significantly more likely to receive pessimistic grade predictions. We show that under-predicted candidates are more likely to enrol in courses for which they are over qualified. We conclude that the use of predicted rather than actual grades has important implications for labour market outcomes and social mobility.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: © 2020 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.
Divisions: Centre for Economic Performance
Subjects: H Social Sciences
Date Deposited: 27 Jul 2022 14:09
Last Modified: 27 Jul 2022 14:09
URI: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/115678

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