Aghion, Philippe ORCID: 0000-0002-9019-1677, Bergeaud, Antonin, Lequien, Matthieu, Melitz, Marc J. and Zuber, Thomas (2021) Opposing firm-level responses to the China shock: horizontal competition versus vertical relationships. CEP Discussion Papers (1787). Centre for Economic Performance, LSE, London, UK.
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Abstract
We decompose the "China shock" into two components that induce different adjustments for firms exposed to Chinese exports: a horizontal shock affecting firms selling goods that compete with similar imported Chinese goods, and a vertical shock affecting firms using inputs similar to the imported Chinese goods. Combining French accounting, customs, and patent information at the firm-level, we show that the horizontal shock is detrimental to firms' sales, employment and innovation. Moreover, this negative impact is concentrated on low-productivity firms. By contrast, we find a positive effect - although often not significant - of the vertical shock on firms' sales, employment and innovation.
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