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Income shocks and conflict: evidence from Nigeria

Abidoye, Babatunde and Calì, Massimiliano (2021) Income shocks and conflict: evidence from Nigeria. Journal of African Economies, 30 (5). 478 - 507. ISSN 0963-8024

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Identification Number: 10.1093/jae/ejab001


This paper examines the relationship between income shocks and conflict across Nigerian states over the 2000s. By matching consumption, production, commodity prices and conflict data, the analysis captures two opposite channels linking agricultural price changes to conflict. Consistently with the opportunity cost mechanism of conflict, price increases of commodities produced by the households have a conflict-reducing effect, while the opposite is true for prices of consumed commodities. The net impact turns out to be conflict inducing in contrast with most of the related literature that focuses on the production side of agricultural price shocks. These results underscore the importance of modelling both production and consumption effects to get consistent estimates of the impact of price changes on conflict.

Item Type: Article
Official URL:
Additional Information: © 2021 The Authors
Divisions: Grantham Research Institute
Subjects: J Political Science > JQ Political institutions Asia
H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions
H Social Sciences > HF Commerce
JEL classification: D - Microeconomics > D7 - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making > D74 - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances
Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q1 - Agriculture > Q11 - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q3 - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation > Q34 - Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts
Date Deposited: 11 Jan 2022 17:12
Last Modified: 12 Jan 2022 08:15

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