LifeSim: a lifecourse dynamic microsimulation model of the millennium birth cohort in England

Skarda, Ieva, Asaria, Miqdad ORCID: 0000-0002-3538-4417 and Cookson, Richard (2021) LifeSim: a lifecourse dynamic microsimulation model of the millennium birth cohort in England. International Journal of Microsimulation, 14 (1). 2 - 42.

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Abstract

We present a dynamic microsimulation model for childhood policy analysis that models developmental, economic, social and health outcomes from birth to death for each child in the Millennium Birth Cohort (MCS) in England, together with public costs and a summary wellbeing measure. The model is a discrete event simulation in discrete time (annual periods), implemented in R, which progresses 100,000 individuals through each year of their lives from birth in the year 2000 to death. From age 0 to 18 the model draws observational data from the MCS, with explicit modelling of only a few derived outcomes (mental health, conduct disorder, mortality, health-related quality of life, public costs and a general wellbeing metric). During adulthood, all outcomes are modelled dynamically using explicit networks of stochastic process equations, with separate networks for working age and retirement. Our equations are parameterised using effect estimates from existing studies combined with target outcome levels from up-to-date administrative and survey data. We present our baseline projections and a simple validation check against external data from the British Cohort Study 1970 and Understanding Society survey.

Item Type:	Article
Official URL:	https://microsimulation.pub/
Additional Information:	© 2021 The Authors
Divisions:	LSE Health
Subjects:	R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine H Social Sciences > HQ The family. Marriage. Woman H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions
Date Deposited:	25 Oct 2021 13:51
Last Modified:	16 Nov 2024 06:18
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/112493

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