On generalized Langevin dynamics and the modelling of global mean temperature

Watkins, Nicholas W. ORCID: 0000-0003-4484-6588, Chapman, Sandra C., Chechkin, Aleksei, Ford, Ian, Klages, Rainer and Stainforth, David A. ORCID: 0000-0001-6476-733X (2021) On generalized Langevin dynamics and the modelling of global mean temperature. In: Braha, Dan, de Aguiar, Marcus A., Gershenson, Carlos, Morales, Alfredo J., Kaufman, Les, Naumova, Elena N., Minai, Ali A. and Bar-Yam, Yaneer, (eds.) Unifying Themes in Complex Systems X: Proceedings of the Tenth International Conference on Complex Systems. Springer Proceedings in Complexity. Springer Science and Business Media B.V., 433 - 441. ISBN 9783030673178

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Abstract

Climate science employs a hierarchy of models, trading the tractability of simplified energy balance models (EBMs) against the detail of Global Circulation Models. Since the pioneering work of Hasselmann, stochastic EBMs have allowed treatment of climate fluctuations and noise. However, it has recently been claimed that observations motivate heavy-tailed temporal response functions in global mean temperature to perturbations. Our complementary approach exploits the correspondence between Hasselmann’s EBM and the original mean-reverting stochastic model in physics, Langevin’s equation of 1908. We propose mapping a model well known in statistical mechanics, the Mori-Kubo Generalised Langevin Equation (GLE) to generalise the Hasselmann EBM. If present, long range memory then simplifies the GLE to a fractional Langevin equation (FLE). We describe the corresponding EBMs that map to the GLE and FLE, briefly discuss their solutions, and relate them to Lovejoy’s new Fractional Energy Balance Model.

Item Type:	Book Section
Official URL:	https://www.springer.com/gb/book/9783030673178
Additional Information:	© 2021 The Authors, under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.
Divisions:	Centre for Analysis of Time Series Geography & Environment
Subjects:	G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences Q Science > QC Physics Q Science > QA Mathematics
Date Deposited:	14 Sep 2021 07:42
Last Modified:	09 Nov 2024 04:58
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/111914

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