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Ripples into waves: trade networks, economic activity, and asset prices

Chang, Jeffery (Jinfan), Du, Huancheng, Lou, Dong and Polk, Christopher (2021) Ripples into waves: trade networks, economic activity, and asset prices. Journal of Financial Economics. ISSN 0304-405X (In Press)

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We exploit information in sovereign CDS spreads and the international trade network to provide causal evidence of the propagation of global economic shocks. We first show that trade links are an important source of shock transmission using the natural experiments of the Japanese tsunami and the Covid-driven Wuhan lockdown. We then confirm more general and gradual information flows along the trade network by showing extensive country-level credit/equity cross-sectional return predictability. News about country fundamentals flows primarily from importers to exporters, depends on both direct and indirect links in the trade network, and is magnified by the exporting country’s financial vulnerability.

Item Type: Article
Official URL:
Additional Information: © 2021 Elsevier B.V.
Divisions: Finance
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HG Finance
Date Deposited: 11 Jun 2021 08:45
Last Modified: 28 Jul 2021 23:16

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