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Extrapolative bubbles and trading volume

Liao, Jingchi, Peng, Cameron and Zhu, Ning (2022) Extrapolative bubbles and trading volume. Review of Financial Studies, 35 (4). 1682 - 1722. ISSN 0893-9454

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Identification Number: 10.1093/rfs/hhab070


We propose an extrapolative model of bubbles to explain the sharp rise in prices and volume observed in historical financial bubbles. The model generates a novel mechanism for volume: because of the interaction between extrapolative beliefs and disposition effects, investors are quick to not only buy assets with positive past returns but also sell them if good returns continue. Using account-level transaction data on the 2014–2015 Chinese stock market bubble, we test and confirm the model’s predictions about trading volume. We quantify the magnitude of the proposed mechanism and show that it can increase trading volume by another 30%.

Item Type: Article
Official URL:
Additional Information: © 2021 The Authors
Divisions: Finance
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HG Finance
JEL classification: G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G11 - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G12 - Asset Pricing; Trading volume; Bond Interest Rates
Date Deposited: 20 May 2021 11:27
Last Modified: 17 Apr 2024 06:24

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