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Evaluating process-based integrated assessment models of climate change mitigation

Wilson, Charlie, Guivarch, Céline, Kriegler, Elmar, van Ruijven, Bas, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Krey, Volker, Schwanitz, Valeria Jana and Thompson, Erica L. (2021) Evaluating process-based integrated assessment models of climate change mitigation. Climatic Change, 166 (1-2). ISSN 0165-0009

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Identification Number: 10.1007/s10584-021-03099-9

Abstract

Process-based integrated assessment models (IAMs) project long-term transformation pathways in energy and land-use systems under what-if assumptions. IAM evaluation is necessary to improve the models’ usefulness as scientific tools applicable in the complex and contested domain of climate change mitigation. We contribute the first comprehensive synthesis of process-based IAM evaluation research, drawing on a wide range of examples across six different evaluation methods including historical simulations, stylised facts, and model diagnostics. For each evaluation method, we identify progress and milestones to date, and draw out lessons learnt as well as challenges remaining. We find that each evaluation method has distinctive strengths, as well as constraints on its application. We use these insights to propose a systematic evaluation framework combining multiple methods to establish the appropriateness, interpretability, credibility, and relevance of process-based IAMs as useful scientific tools for informing climate policy. We also set out a programme of evaluation research to be mainstreamed both within and outside the IAM community.

Item Type: Article
Official URL: https://www.springer.com/journal/10584
Additional Information: Funding Information: CW, CG, EK, DvV, and VK acknowledge funding support from EU FP7 grant #308329 (ADVANCE) and EU FP7 grant #265139 (AMPERE). ET acknowledges funding support from EPSRC grant #EP/P016847/1 (CRUISSE Network). © 2021 The Authors
Divisions: Grantham Research Institute
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences
Date Deposited: 19 May 2021 15:27
Last Modified: 20 Sep 2021 04:13
URI: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/110505

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