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Fueling the Covid-19 pandemic: summer school holidays and incidence rates in German districts

Plümper, Thomas and Neumayer, Eric ORCID: 0000-0003-2719-7563 (2021) Fueling the Covid-19 pandemic: summer school holidays and incidence rates in German districts. Journal of Public Health, 43 (3). e415 - e422. ISSN 1741-3842

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Identification Number: 10.1093/pubmed/fdab080

Abstract

Background The Robert-Koch-Institute reports that during the summer holiday period a foreign country is stated as the most likely place of infection for an average of 27 and a maximum of 49 percent of new SARS-CoV-2 infections in Germany. Methods Cross-sectional study on observational data. In Germany, summer school holidays are coordinated between states and spread out over 13 weeks. Employing a dynamic model with district fixed effects, we analyze the association between these holidays and weekly incidence rates across 401 German districts. Results We find effects of the holiday period of around 45 percent of the average district incidence rates in Germany during their respective final week of holidays and the two weeks after holidays end. Western states tend to experience stronger effects than Eastern states. We also find statistically significant interaction effects of school holidays with per capita taxable income and the share of foreign residents in a district’s population. Conclusions Our results suggest that changed behaviour during the holiday season accelerated the pandemic and made it considerably more difficult for public health authorities to contain the spread of the virus by means of contact tracing. Germany’s public health authorities did not prepare adequately for this acceleration.

Item Type: Article
Official URL: https://academic.oup.com/jpubhealth
Additional Information: © 2021 The Authors
Divisions: Geography & Environment
Subjects: R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine > RA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicine
H Social Sciences > HV Social pathology. Social and public welfare. Criminology
Date Deposited: 01 Mar 2021 10:06
Last Modified: 27 Sep 2021 08:39
URI: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/108920

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