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Immigration, local crowd-out and undercoverage bias

Amior, Michael (2020) Immigration, local crowd-out and undercoverage bias. CEP Discussion Papers (1669). Centre for Economic Performance, LSE, London, UK.

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Revised May 2020. Revised January 2021. Using decadal census data since 1960, I cannot reject the hypothesis that new immigrants crowd out existing residents from US commuting zones and states one-for-one. My estimate is precise and robust to numerous specifications, as well as accounting for local dynamics; and I show how it can be reconciled with apparently conflicting results in the literature. Exploiting my model's structure, I attribute 30% of the observed effect to mismeasurement, specifically undercoverage of immigrants. Based on a remarkably simple decomposition, I show that population mobility accounts for 90% of local adjustment, and labor demand the remainder. These results have important methodological implications for the estimation of immigration effects.

Item Type: Monograph (Discussion Paper)
Official URL:
Additional Information: © 2020 The Authors
Divisions: Centre for Economic Performance
Subjects: J Political Science > JV Colonies and colonization. Emigration and immigration. International migration
H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor
JEL classification: J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J6 - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies > J61 - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J6 - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies > J64 - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
R - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics > R2 - Household Analysis > R23 - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
Date Deposited: 19 Jan 2021 11:00
Last Modified: 15 Sep 2023 23:53

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