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Labor demand in the past, present and future

Graetz, Georg (2020) Labor demand in the past, present and future. CEP Discussion Papers (1683). Centre for Economic Performance, LSE, London, UK.

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Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, technological change has led to the automation of existing tasks and the creation of new ones, as well as the reallocation of labor across occupations and industries. These processes have been costly to individual workers, but labor demand has remained strong, and real wages have steadily increased in line with productivity growth. I provide evidence suggesting, however, that in recent decades automation has outpaced the creation of new tasks and thus the demand for labor has declined. There is strong disagreement about the future of labor demand, and predictions about technological breakthroughs have a poor track record. Given the importance of overall labor demand for workers' standard of living as well as their ability to adjust to a changing labor market, obtaining accurate forecasts should be a priority for policy makers.

Item Type: Monograph (Discussion Paper)
Official URL:
Additional Information: © 2020 The Author
Divisions: Centre for Economic Performance
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor
T Technology > T Technology (General)
H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions
JEL classification: J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J2 - Time Allocation, Work Behavior, and Employment Determination and Creation; Human Capital; Retirement > J23 - Employment Determination; Job Creation; Demand for Labor; Self-Employment
O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth > O3 - Technological Change; Research and Development > O33 - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
Date Deposited: 14 Jan 2021 15:30
Last Modified: 17 Feb 2021 00:24

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