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Modelling contacts and transitions in the SIR epidemics model

Garibaldi, Pietro, Moen, Espen R. and Pissarides, Christopher (2020) Modelling contacts and transitions in the SIR epidemics model. Covid Economics, 5. 1 - 20.

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Abstract

Since the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic economists have turned to the SIR model and its subsequent variants for the study of the pandemic's economic impact. But the SIR model is lacking the optimising behaviour of economic models, in which agents can inuence future transitions with their present actions. We borrow ideas and modelling techniques from the Mortensen-Pissarides (1994) search and matching model and show that there is a well-de!ned solution in line with the original claims of Kermack and McKendrick (1927) but in which incentives play a role in determining the transitions. There are also externalities that justify government intervention in the form of imposing more restrictions on actions outside the home than a decentralised equilibrium would yield.

Item Type: Article
Official URL: https://cepr.org/content/covid-economics-vetted-an...
Additional Information: © 2020 CEPR Press
Divisions: Economics
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
H Social Sciences > HV Social pathology. Social and public welfare. Criminology
R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine > RA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicine
Date Deposited: 11 Dec 2020 17:15
Last Modified: 29 Jul 2021 23:14
URI: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/107898

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