Climate change and household welfare in Sub-Saharan Africa: empirical evidence from Swaziland

Sam, Abdoul G., Abidoye, Babatunde and Mashaba, Sihle (2021) Climate change and household welfare in Sub-Saharan Africa: empirical evidence from Swaziland. Food Security, 13 (2). 439 – 455. ISSN 1876-4517

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Abstract

The fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and several studies suggest that climate change is expected to increase food insecurity and poverty in many parts of the world. In this paper, we adopt a microeconometric approach to empirically estimate the impact of climate change-induced hikes in cereal prices on household welfare in Swaziland (also Kingdom of Eswatini). We do so first by econometrically estimating expenditure and price elasticities of five food groups consumed by households in Swaziland using the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS), based on data from the 2009/2010 Swaziland Household Income and Expenditure Survey. Second, we use the estimated expenditure and compensated elasticities from the AIDS model, food shares from the household survey, and food price projections developed by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) to estimate the proportionate increase in income required to maintain the level of household utility that would have prevailed absent an increase in food prices. Our results show increases in cereal prices due to climate change are expected to double extreme poverty in urban areas and increase poverty in rural areas of the country to staggering levels - between 71 and 75%, compared to 63% before the price changes. Income transfers of between 17.5 and 25.4% of pre-change expenditures are needed to avoid the welfare losses.

Item Type:	Article
Official URL:	https://www.springer.com/journal/12571
Additional Information:	© 2020 The Authors
Divisions:	Grantham Research Institute
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HN Social history and conditions. Social problems. Social reform G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions
JEL classification:	Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q54 - Climate; Natural Disasters Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q56 - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounting; Environmental Equity O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O13 - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Other Primary Products O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O15 - Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Econometric Methods: Multiple; Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables; Endogenous Regressors > C34 - Truncated and Censored Models D - Microeconomics > D1 - Household Behavior and Family Economics > D12 - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
Date Deposited:	05 Oct 2020 12:30
Last Modified:	16 Nov 2024 01:06
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/106700

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