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A two-phase dynamic contagion model for Covid-19

Chen, Zezhun, Dassios, Angelos, Kuan, Valerie, Lim, Jia Wei, Qu, Yan, Surya, Budhi and Zhao, Hongbiao (2020) A two-phase dynamic contagion model for Covid-19. . Department of Statistics, London School of Economics and Political Science.

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Abstract

In this paper, we propose a continuous-time stochastic intensity model, namely, two-phase dynamic contagion process (2P-DCP), for modelling the epidemic contagion of COVID-19 and investigating the lockdown effect based on the dynamic contagion model introduced by Dassios and Zhao (2011). It allows randomness to the infectivity of individuals rather than a constant reproduction number as assumed by standard models. Key epidemiological quantities, such as the distribution of final epidemic size and expected epidemic duration, are derived and estimated based on real data for various regions and countries. The associated time lag of the effect of intervention in each country or region is estimated. Our results are consistent with the incubation time of COVID-19 found by recent medical study. We demonstrate that our model could potentially be a valuable tool in the modeling of COVID-19. More importantly, the proposed model of 2P-DCP could also be used as an important tool in epidemiological modelling as this type of contagion models with very simple structures is adequate to describe the evolution of regional epidemic and worldwide pandemic.

Item Type: Monograph (Working Paper)
Official URL: http://www.lse.ac.uk/Statistics/Research/Coronavir...
Additional Information: © 2020 The Author(s)
Divisions: Statistics
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HA Statistics
H Social Sciences > HV Social pathology. Social and public welfare. Criminology
R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine > RA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicine
JEL classification: I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I1 - Health > I10 - General
H - Public Economics > H0 - General > H00 - General
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E6 - Macroeconomic Policy Formation, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, Macroeconomic Policy, and General Outlook > E60 - General
Date Deposited: 12 Jun 2020 08:57
Last Modified: 19 Aug 2020 23:05
URI: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/105064

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