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Making confident decisions with model ensembles

Roussos, Joe, Bradley, Richard and Frigg, Roman (2020) Making confident decisions with model ensembles. Philosophy of Science. ISSN 0031-8248 (In Press)

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Abstract

Many policy decisions take input from collections of scientific models. Such decisions face significant and often poorly understood uncertainty. We rework the so-called “confidence approach” to tackle decision-making under severe uncertainty with multiple models, and illustrate the approach with a case study: insurance pricing using hurricane models. The confidence approach has important consequences for this case and offers a powerful framework for a wide class of problems. We end by discussing different ways in which model ensembles can feed information into the approach, appropriate to different collections of models.

Item Type: Article
Divisions: Philosophy, Logic and Scientific Method
Subjects: B Philosophy. Psychology. Religion > B Philosophy (General)
B Philosophy. Psychology. Religion > BC Logic
Date Deposited: 26 Mar 2020 12:09
Last Modified: 19 May 2020 23:12
URI: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/103844

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