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Citizen forecasting 2019: a big win for the Conservatives

Murr, Andreas, Stegmaier, Mary and Lewis-Beck, Michael S. (2019) Citizen forecasting 2019: a big win for the Conservatives. British Policy and Politics at LSE (04 Dec 2019), pp. 1-4. Blog Entry.

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The recent failures of voter intention polls to predict UK election results has led to public scepticism about the usefulness of polls. Andreas Murr, Mary Stegmaier, and Michael S. Lewis-Beck deploy an alternative approach, which focuses on which party opinion poll respondents expect to win the election (rather than just on their voting intentions). This ‘voter expectations’ model predicts a solid Johnson majority, with the Conservatives gaining 360 seats, and Labour only 190.

Item Type: Online resource (Blog Entry)
Official URL:
Additional Information: © 2019 The Author(s)
Divisions: LSE
Subjects: J Political Science > JA Political science (General)
J Political Science > JN Political institutions (Europe)
Date Deposited: 27 Feb 2020 16:09
Last Modified: 17 Aug 2021 23:02

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