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Citizen forecasting 2019: a big win for the Conservatives

Murr, Andreas, Stegmaier, Mary and Lewis-Beck, Michael S. (2019) Citizen forecasting 2019: a big win for the Conservatives. British Policy and Politics at LSE (04 Dec 2019), pp. 1-4. Blog Entry.

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Abstract

The recent failures of voter intention polls to predict UK election results has led to public scepticism about the usefulness of polls. Andreas Murr, Mary Stegmaier, and Michael S. Lewis-Beck deploy an alternative approach, which focuses on which party opinion poll respondents expect to win the election (rather than just on their voting intentions). This ‘voter expectations’ model predicts a solid Johnson majority, with the Conservatives gaining 360 seats, and Labour only 190.

Item Type: Online resource (Blog Entry)
Official URL: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/
Additional Information: © 2019 The Author(s)
Divisions: LSE
Subjects: J Political Science > JA Political science (General)
J Political Science > JN Political institutions (Europe)
Date Deposited: 27 Feb 2020 16:09
Last Modified: 18 Aug 2020 23:20
URI: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/103578

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