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Nuclear proliferation: the risks of prediction

Solingen, Etel (2018) Nuclear proliferation: the risks of prediction. In: Gheciu, Alexandra and Wohlforth, William C., (eds.) The Oxford Handbook of International Security. Oxford Handbooks of International Relations. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK, 365 - 381. ISBN 9780198777854

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Identification Number: 10.1093/oxfordhb/9780198777854.013.24


This chapter reviews existing theoretical tools for predicting proliferation or nonproliferation, spanning a range of agents across levels of analysis. It then distills relevant considerations for exploring future scenarios in East Asia. The region provides a good laboratory for understanding failed past predictions and for identifying conditions for potential transformations of its nuclear order. The final section extracts lessons for relying on cutting edge scholarship to map out proliferation futures. A promising research agenda attentive to complex systemic effects, dynamics of the global economy, regime survival, norm,s and institutions has replaced older accounts. Yet a unified field theory capable of predicting proliferation may not be in our grasp.

Item Type: Book Section
Official URL:
Additional Information: © 2018 Oxford University Press
Divisions: International Relations
Subjects: J Political Science > JZ International relations
D History General and Old World > DS Asia
Date Deposited: 31 Jan 2020 12:36
Last Modified: 20 Aug 2021 01:16

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