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The fall in global fertility: a quantitative model

De Silva, Tiloka and Tenreyro, Silvana ORCID: 0000-0002-9816-7452 (2020) The fall in global fertility: a quantitative model. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 12 (3). pp. 77-109. ISSN 1945-7707

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Identification Number: 10.1257/mac.20180296


Over the past six decades, fertility rates have fallen dramatically in most middle-and low-income countries. To analyze these developments, we study a quantitative model of endogenous human capital and fertility choice, augmented to allow for social norms over family size. We parametrize the model using data on socioeconomic variables and information on funding for population-control policies aimed at affecting social norms and improving access to contraceptives. We simulate the implementation of population-control policies to gauge their contribution to the decline in fertility. We find that policies aimed at altering family-size norms accelerated and strengthened the decline in fertility, which would have otherwise taken place much more gradually.

Item Type: Article
Official URL:
Additional Information: © 2020 American Economic Association
Divisions: Economics
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
H Social Sciences > HQ The family. Marriage. Woman
JEL classification: J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J10 - General
J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J13 - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J18 - Public Policy
J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J2 - Time Allocation, Work Behavior, and Employment Determination and Creation; Human Capital; Retirement > J24 - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O15 - Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
Z - Other Special Topics > Z1 - Cultural Economics; Economic Sociology; Economic Anthropology > Z13 - Social Norms and Social Capital; Social Networks
Date Deposited: 16 Jan 2020 15:33
Last Modified: 16 May 2024 13:41

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