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The fall in global fertility: a quantitative model

De Silva, Tiloka and Tenreyro, Silvana (2020) The fall in global fertility: a quantitative model. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 12 (03). pp. 77-109. ISSN 1945-7707

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Over the past six decades, fertility rates fell dramatically in most middle- and low-income countries. To analyze these developments, we study a quanti- tative model of endogenous human capital and fertility choice, augmented to allow for social norms over family size. We parametrize the model using data on socio-economic variables and information on funding for population-control policies aimed at affecting social norms and improving access to contracep- tives. We simulate the implementation of population-control policies to gauge their contribution to the decline in fertility. We find that policies aimed at al- tering family-size norms accelerated and strengthened the decline in fertility, which would have otherwise taken place much more gradually.

Item Type: Article
Official URL:
Additional Information: © 2020 American Economic Association
Divisions: Economics
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
H Social Sciences > HQ The family. Marriage. Woman
JEL classification: J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J10 - General
J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J13 - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J18 - Public Policy
J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J2 - Time Allocation, Work Behavior, and Employment Determination and Creation; Human Capital; Retirement > J24 - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O15 - Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
Z - Other Special Topics > Z1 - Cultural Economics; Economic Sociology; Economic Anthropology > Z13 - Social Norms and Social Capital; Social Networks
Date Deposited: 16 Jan 2020 15:33
Last Modified: 15 Jul 2020 14:06

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