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The origins of persistent current account imbalances in the post-Bretton Woods era

Manger, Mark S. and Sattler, Thomas (2019) The origins of persistent current account imbalances in the post-Bretton Woods era. Comparative Political Studies. ISSN 0010-4140

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Identification Number: 10.1177/0010414019859031

Abstract

Why do some countries run persistent current account surpluses? Why do others run deficits, often over decades, leading to enduring global imbalances? Such persistent imbalances are the root cause of many financial crises and a major source of international economic conflict. We propose that differences in wage-bargaining institutions explain a large share of imbalances through their effect on the trade balance. In countries with coordinated wage bargaining, wage growth in export industries can be restrained to ensure competitiveness, leading to persistent trade surpluses. We estimate the contribution of these institutions to trade balances in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) member countries since 1977 and find ample support for our hypothesis. Contrary to much of the literature, the choice of fixed or floating exchange rate regimes has only a small effect on trade or current account balances. In other words, internal adjustment in surplus countries via wage-bargaining institutions trumps external adjustment by deficit countries.

Item Type: Article
Official URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/home/cps
Additional Information: © 2019 The Author(s)
Divisions: International Relations
Subjects: J Political Science > JZ International relations
Date Deposited: 12 Dec 2019 12:51
Last Modified: 22 Jan 2020 00:27
URI: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/102883

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