Individual consequences of occupational decline

Edin, Per-Anders, Evans, Tiernan, Graetz, Georg, Hernnäs, Sofia and Michaels, Guy ORCID: 0000-0002-8796-4536 (2019) Individual consequences of occupational decline. CEP Discussion Papers (CEPDP1629). London School of Economics and Political Science. Centre for Economic Performance, London, UK.

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Abstract

What are the earnings and employment losses that workers suffer when demand for their occupations declines? To answer this question we combine forecasts on occupational employment changes, which allow us to identify unanticipated declines; administrative data on the population of Swedish workers, spanning several decades; and a highly detailed occupational classification. We find that, compared to similar workers, those facing occupational decline lost about 2-5 percent of mean cumulative earnings from 1986-2013. But workers at the bottom of their occupations' initial earnings distributions suffered considerably larger losses. These earnings losses are partly accounted for by reduced employment, and increased unemployment and retraining.

Item Type:	Monograph (Discussion Paper)
Official URL:	https://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/discussion...
Additional Information:	© 2019 The Author(s)
Divisions:	Centre for Economic Performance Economics
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor
JEL classification:	O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth > O3 - Technological Change; Research and Development > O33 - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J2 - Time Allocation, Work Behavior, and Employment Determination and Creation; Human Capital; Retirement > J24 - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J6 - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies > J62 - Job, Occupational, and Intergenerational Mobility
Date Deposited:	06 Dec 2019 15:36
Last Modified:	11 Dec 2024 19:32
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/102823

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