Estimated societal costs of stroke in the UK based on a discrete event simulation

Patel, Anita, Berdunov, Vladislav, Quayyum, Zahidul, King, Derek ORCID: 0000-0002-2408-4558, Knapp, Martin ORCID: 0000-0003-1427-0215 and Wittenberg, Raphael ORCID: 0000-0003-3096-2721 (2019) Estimated societal costs of stroke in the UK based on a discrete event simulation. Age and Ageing, 49 (2). 270–276. ISSN 0002-0729

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Abstract

Background There around 100,000 new stroke cases and over a million people living with its consequences annually in the United Kingdom (UK). This has large impacts on health and social care, unpaid carers and lost productivity. We aimed to estimate associated costs. Methods We estimated 2014/15 annual mean cost per person and aggregate UK cost of stroke for individuals aged ≥40 from a societal perspective. Health and social care costs in the first and subsequent years after stroke were estimated from discrete event simulation modelling, with probability of progression and length of receipt of different health and social care services obtained from routine registry and audit data. Unpaid care hours and lost productivity were obtained from trial data. UK unit costs were applied to estimate mean costs. Epidemiological estimates of stroke incidence and prevalence were then applied to estimate aggregate costs for the UK. Results Mean cost of new-onset stroke is £45,409 (95% CI 42,054-48,763) in the first year after stroke and £24,778 (20,234-29,322) in subsequent years. Aggregate societal cost of stroke is £26 billion per year, including £8.6 billion for NHS and social care. The largest component of total cost was unpaid care (61%) and, given high survival, £20.6 billion related to ongoing care. Conclusion The estimated aggregate cost of stroke substantially exceeds previous UK estimates. Since most of the cost is attributed to unpaid care, interventions aimed at rehabilitation and reducing new and recurrent stroke are likely to yield substantial benefits to carers and cost savings to society.

Item Type:	Article
Official URL:	https://academic.oup.com/ageing
Additional Information:	© 2019 Oxford University Press
Divisions:	Care Policy and Evaluation Centre Health Policy
Date Deposited:	12 Nov 2019 10:54
Last Modified:	15 Nov 2024 19:06
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/102489

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