Young, Alwyn (2019) Channeling Fisher: randomization tests and the statistical insignificance of seemingly significant experimental results. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 134 (2). 557 - 598. ISSN 0033-5533
Text (ChannellingFisher)
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Abstract
I follow R. A. Fisher's The Design of Experiments (1935), using randomization statistical inference to test the null hypothesis of no treatment effects in a comprehensive sample of 53 experimental papers drawn from the journals of the American Economic Association. In the average paper, randomization tests of the significance of individual treatment effects find 13% to 22% fewer significant results than are found using authors’ methods. In joint tests of multiple treatment effects appearing together in tables, randomization tests yield 33% to 49% fewer statistically significant results than conventional tests. Bootstrap and jackknife methods support and confirm the randomization results.
Item Type: | Article |
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Official URL: | https://academic.oup.com/qje |
Additional Information: | © 2018 The Author |
Divisions: | Economics |
Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory Q Science > QA Mathematics |
JEL classification: | C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General > C12 - Hypothesis Testing C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C9 - Design of Experiments > C90 - General |
Date Deposited: | 19 Aug 2019 15:36 |
Last Modified: | 12 Dec 2024 01:51 |
URI: | http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/101401 |
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