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A non-linear Keynesian Goodwin-type endogenous model of the cycle: Bayesian evidence for the USA

Mariolis, Theodore, Konstantakis, Konstantinos N., Michaelides, Panayotis G. and Tsionas, Efthymios G. (2019) A non-linear Keynesian Goodwin-type endogenous model of the cycle: Bayesian evidence for the USA. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 23 (1). ISSN 1081-1826

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Identification Number: 10.1515/snde-2016-0137

Abstract

This paper incorporates the so-called Bhaduri-Marglin accumulation function in Goodwin's original growth cycle model and econometrically estimates the proposed model for the case of the US economy in the time period 1960-2012, using a modern Bayesian sequential Monte Carlo method. Based on our findings, the US economy follows an exhilarationist regime throughout our investigation period with the sole exception of an underconsumption regime for the time period 1974-1978. In general, the results suggest that the proposed approach is an appropriate vehicle for expanding and improving traditional Goodwin-type models.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: © 2019 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston
Divisions: Systemic Risk Centre
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
Q Science > QA Mathematics
JEL classification: B - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology > B5 - Current Heterodox Approaches > B51 - Socialist; Marxian; Sraffian
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General > C11 - Bayesian Analysis
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C6 - Mathematical Methods and Programming > C62 - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Date Deposited: 08 Mar 2019 09:15
Last Modified: 22 Jan 2020 00:20
URI: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/100229

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