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The slope of the term structure and recessions: evidence from the UK, 1822-2016

Goodhart, C. A. E., Mills, Terence C. and Capie, Forrest (2019) The slope of the term structure and recessions: evidence from the UK, 1822-2016. CEPR Discussion Paper (DP 13519). Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), London.

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Abstract

This paper investigates whether the inversion of the yield spread, with short-term rates higher than the long-term rate, has been and remains an effective predictor of recessions in the U.K. using monthly data from 1822 to 2016. Indicators of recession are constructed in a variety of ways depending on the availability and properties of the data in the pre-World War 1, inter-war, and post-World War 2 periods. It is found that, using peak-to-trough recession indicators and a probit regression model, there is reasonably strong evidence to support the inverted yield spread being a predictor of recessions for lead times up to eighteen months in all three periods

Item Type: Monograph (Discussion Paper)
Additional Information: © 2019 The Authors
Divisions: Financial Markets Group
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions
H Social Sciences > HG Finance
JEL classification: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E30 - General
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E43 - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
N - Economic History > N1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Growth and Fluctuations > N10 - General, International, or Comparative
Date Deposited: 13 Feb 2019 15:54
Last Modified: 19 Mar 2019 00:04
URI: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/100092

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