Do well managed firms make better forecasts?

Bloom, Nicholas, Kawakubo, Taka, Meng, Charlotte, Mizen, Paul, Riley, Rebecca, Senga, Tatsuro and Van Reenen, John ORCID: 0000-0001-9153-2907 (2025) Do well managed firms make better forecasts? Review of Economics and Statistics. ISSN 0034-6535

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Abstract

We link new forecast and management data on over 20,000 firms to data on productivity in manufacturing and services. The panel survey was administered in the UK in July 2017 and November 2020, coinciding with two periods of considerable uncertainty from Brexit and Covid. We find that better-managed firms make more accurate forecasts for firm-level turnover and macro-level GDP. Uniquely, we show better-managed firms are also aware that they make more accurate forecasts and have greater confidence in their predictions. This highlights how superior forecasting ability enables well-managed firms to make improved operational and strategic choices.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	© 2025 The Author(s)
Divisions:	Economics
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD28 Management. Industrial Management H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
JEL classification:	L - Industrial Organization > L2 - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior > L20 - General M - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting > M2 - Business Economics > M20 - General O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth > O3 - Technological Change; Research and Development > O32 - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth > O3 - Technological Change; Research and Development > O33 - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
Date Deposited:	24 Nov 2025 11:15
Last Modified:	20 Jan 2026 00:03
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/130291

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