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Article

Allen, Myles R., Read, Peter L. and Smith, Leonard A. (1992) Temperature oscillations. Nature, 359 (6397). p. 679. ISSN 0028-0836

Allen, Myles R., Read, Peter L. and Smith, Leonard A. (1992) Temperature time-series? Nature, 355 (6362). p. 686. ISSN 0028-0836

Allen, Myles R. and Smith, Leonard A. (1994) Investigating the origins and significance of low-frequency modes of climate variability. Geophysical Research Letters, 21 (10). pp. 883-886. ISSN 0094-8276

Allen, Myles R. and Smith, Leonard A. (1997) Optimal filtering in singular spectrum analysis. Physics Letters A, 234 (6). pp. 419-428. ISSN 0375-9601

Altalo, Mary G. and Hale, M. (2004) Turning weather forecasts into business forecasts. Environmental Finance . ISSN 1468-8573

Altalo, Mary G. and Smith, Leonard A. (2004) Using ensemble weather forecasts to manage utilities risk. Environmental Finance, Octobe (Supple). pp. 48-49. ISSN 1468-8573

Baker, James (2012) Cloudy forecast for weather satellite data. Science, 338 . p. 1419. ISSN 0036-8075

Barrieu, Pauline, Bellamy, Nadine and Sahut, Jean-Michel (2012) Assessing the costs of protection in a context of switching stochastic regimes. Applied Mathematical Finance, 19 (6). pp. 495-511. ISSN 1350-486X

Barrieu, Pauline and Dischel, Robert S. (2001) Weather hedging at the hot air gas company. Erivativesreview.com .

Barrieu, Pauline and El Karoui, Nicole (2013) Monotone stability of quadratic semimartingales with applications to general quadratic BSDEs. Annals of Probability, 41 (3B). pp. 1831-1863. ISSN 0091-1798

Barrieu, Pauline and El Karoui, Nicole (2002) Optimal design of weather derivatives. Algo research quarterly , 5 . pp. 79-92. ISSN 1488-0539

Barrieu, Pauline and El Karoui, Nicole (2004) Optimal risk transfer. Finance, 25 . pp. 31-47. ISSN 0752-6180

Barrieu, Pauline and Fehr, Max (2014) Market-consistent modeling for cap-and-trade schemes and application to option pricing. Operations Research, 62 (2). pp. 234-249. ISSN 0030-364X

Barrieu, Pauline and Louberge, Henri (2013) Reinsurance and securitisation of life insurance risk: the impact of regulatory constraints. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 52 (2). pp. 135-144. ISSN 0167-6687

Barrieu, Pauline and Schoutens, Wim (2006) Iterates of the infinitesimal generator and space-time harmonic polynomials of a Markov process. Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics, 186 (1). pp. 300-323. ISSN 0377-0427

Barrieu, Pauline and Veraart, Luitgard A.M. (2014) Pricing q-forward contracts: an evaluation of estimation window and pricing method under different mortality models. Scandinavian Actuarial Journal . ISSN 0346-1238 (In Press)

Bates, R. A., Wynn, H. P. and Fraga, E. S. (2007) Feasible region approximation: a comparison of search cone and convex hull methods. Engineering Optimization, 39 (5). pp. 513-527. ISSN 0305-215X

Bates, R. A. and Wynn, Henry P. (2004) Modelling feasible design regions using lattice-based kernel methods. Quality and Reliability Engineering International, 20 (2). pp. 135-142. ISSN 0748-8017

Bates, Ron A., Kenett , Ron S. , Steinberg, David M. and Wynn, Henry P. (2006) Achieving robust design from computer simulations. Quality Technology & Quantitative Management, 3 (2). pp. 161-177. ISSN 1684-3703

Berstein, Yael, Lee, Jon, Maruri-Aguilar, Hugo, Onn, Shmuel, Riccomagno, Eva, Weismantel, Robert and Wynn, Henry P. (2008) Nonlinear matroid optimization and experimental design. SIAM Journal on Discrete Mathematics, 22 (3). pp. 901-919. ISSN 0895-4801

Beven, Keith (2011) I believe in climate change but how precautionary do we need to be in planning for the future? Hydrological Processes, 25 (9). pp. 1517-1520. ISSN 0885-6087

Beven, Keith (2013) So how much of your error is epistemic? Lessons from Japan and Italy. Hydrological Processes, 27 (11). pp. 1677-1680. ISSN 0885-6087

Beven, Keith (2014) What we see now: event-persistence and the predictability of hydro-eco-geomorphological systems. Ecological Modelling . ISSN 0304-3800 (In Press)

Beven, Keith, Smith, P. J. and Wood, A. (2011) On the colour and spin of epistemic error (and what we might do about it). Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8 (3). pp. 5355-5386. ISSN 1812-2116

Bröcker, Jochen (2011) Estimating reliability and resolution of probability forecasts through decomposition of the empirical score. Climate Dynamics, 39 (3). pp. 655-667. ISSN 0930-7575

Bröcker, Jochen and Smith, Leonard A. (2008) From ensemble forecasts to predictive distribution functions. Tellus Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 60 (4). pp. 663-678. ISSN 0280-6495

Bröcker, Jochen and Smith, Leonard A. (2007) Increasing the reliability of reliability diagrams. Weather and Forecasting, 22 (3). pp. 651-661. ISSN 0882-8156

Bröcker, Jochen and Smith, Leonard A. (2007) Scoring probabilistic forecasts: the importance of being proper. Weather and Forecasting, 22 (2). pp. 382-388. ISSN 0882-8156

Bröcker , Jochen and Parlitz , Ulrich (2003) Analyzing communication schemes using methods from nonlinear filtering. Chaos, 13 (1). pp. 195-208. ISSN 1054-1500

Calel, Raphael, Stainforth, David A. and Dietz, Simon (2013) Tall tales and fat tails: the science and economics of extreme warming. Climatic Change, online . pp. 1-15. ISSN 0165-0009 (In Press)

Capparelli, V., Franzke, C., Vecchio, A., Freeman, M. P., Watkins, N. W. and Carbone, V. (2013) A spatiotemporal analysis of U.S. station temperature trends over the last century. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 118 (14). pp. 7427-7434. ISSN 2169-897X

Capparelli, V., Franzke, C., Vecchio, A., Freeman, M. P., Watkins, N. W. and Carbone, V. (2013) A spatiotemporal analysis of US station temperature trends over the last century. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 118 (14). pp. 7427-7434. ISSN 2169-897X

Daron, Joseph D. and Stainforth, David A. (2014) Assessing pricing assumptions for weather index insurance in a changing climate. Climate Risk Management, 1 . pp. 76-91. ISSN 2212-0963

Du, Hailiang and Smith, Leonard A. (2012) Parameter estimation through ignorance. Physical Review E, 86 (1). 016213. ISSN 1539-3755

Du, Hailiang and Smith, Leonard A. (2014) Pseudo-orbit data assimilation. part I: the perfect model scenario. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 71 (2). pp. 469-482. ISSN 0022-4928

Du, Hailiang and Smith, Leonard A. (2014) Pseudo-orbit data assimilation. part II: the perfect model scenario. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 71 (2). pp. 483-495. ISSN 0022-4928

Ellepola, Jerome, Thijssen, Nort, Grievink, Johan, Baak, Govert, Avhale, Abhijeet and van Schijndel, Jan (2012) Development of a synthesis tool for gas-to-liquid complexes. Computers & Chemical Engineering, 42 . pp. 2-14. ISSN 0098-1354

Frigg, Arno, Frigg, Roman, Hintermann, Beat, Barg, Alexey and Valderrabano, Victor (2007) The biomechanical influence of tibio-talar containment on stability of the ankle joint. Knee Surgery, Sports Traumatology, Arthroscopy, 15 (11). pp. 1355-1362. ISSN 0942-2056

Frigg, Roman (2009) Book review: a companionable coverage of the philosophy of science. Metascience, 18 (1). pp. 139-142. ISSN 0815-0796

Frigg, Roman (2005) Book review: ontological aspects of quantum field theory. Philosophy of Science, 72 (3). pp. 511-514. ISSN 0031-8248

Frigg, Roman (2008) Book review: the images of time: an essay on temporal representation. The British Journal of Aesthetics, 48 (4). pp. 467-469. ISSN 0007-0904

Frigg, Roman (2002) Book review: ubiquity: the science of history ... or why the world is simpler than we think. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 53 (4). pp. 585-591. ISSN 1464-3537

Frigg, Roman (2013) Clever fetishists. Art History, 36 (3). pp. 665-669. ISSN 1467-8365

Frigg, Roman and Berkovitz, Joseph (2001) Book review: explaining chaos. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 52 (1). pp. 201-205. ISSN 1464-3537

Frigg, Roman, Bradley, Seamus, Du, Hailiang and Smith, Leonard A. (2014) Laplace's demon and the adventures of his apprentices. Philosophy of Science, 81 (1). pp. 31-59. ISSN 0031-8248

Frigg, Roman, Smith, Leonard A. and Stainforth, David A. (2013) The myopia of imperfect climate models: the case of UKCP09. Philosophy of Science, 80 (5). pp. 886-897. ISSN 0031-8248

Frigg, Roman and Votsis, Ioannis (2011) Everything you always wanted to know about structural realism but were afraid to ask. European Journal for Philosophy of Science, 1 (2). pp. 227-276. ISSN 1879-4912

Frigg, Roman and Werndl, Charlotte (2012) Demystifying typicality. Philosophy of Science, 79 (5). pp. 917-929. ISSN 0031-8248

Gasparini, Mauro, Margaria, Gabriella and Wynn, Henry P. (2004) Dynamic risk control for project development. Statistical Methods & Applications, 13 (1). pp. 73-88. ISSN 1618-2510

Giammarino, Flavia and Barrieu, Pauline (2013) Indifference pricing with uncertainty averse preferences. Journal of Mathematical Economics, 49 (1). pp. 2-15. ISSN 0304-4068

Giammarino, Flavia and Barrieu, Pauline (2009) A semiparametric model for the systematic factors of portfolio credit risk premia. Journal of Empirical Finance, 16 (4). pp. 655-670. ISSN 0927-5398

Giglio, Beatrice, Naiman, D.Q. and Wynn, Henry P. (2002) Grobner bases, abstract tubes, and inclusion-exclusion reliability bounds. IEEE Transactions on Reliability, 51 (3). pp. 358-366. ISSN 0018-9529

Gilmour, Isla, Smith, Leonard A. and Buizza, Roberto (2001) Linear regime duration: is 24 hours a long time in synoptic weather forecasting? Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 58 (22). pp. 3525-3539. ISSN 0022-4928

Giovagnoli, Alessandra, Marzialetti, Johnny and Wynn, Henry P. (2008) A new approach to inter-rater agreement through stochastic orderings: the discrete case. Metrika, 67 (3). pp. 349-370. ISSN 0026-1335

Giovagnoli, Alessandra and Wynn, Henry P. (2008) Stochastic orderings for discrete random variables. Statistics & Probability Letters, 78 (16). pp. 2827-2835. ISSN 0167-7152

Glendinning, Paul and Smith, Leonard A. (2013) Lacunarity and period-doubling. Dynamical Systems . pp. 1-11. ISSN 1468-9367

Golobic, I., Pavlovic, E., von Hardenberg, J., Berry, M., Nelson, R.A., Kenning, D.B.R. and Smith, Leonard A. (2004) Comparison of a mechanistic model for nucleate boiling with experimental spatio-temporal data. Chemical Engineering Research and Design, 82 (4). pp. 435-444. ISSN 0263-8762

Green, A. E. S., Cross, K. R. and Smith, Leonard A. (1980) Improved analytic characterization of ultraviolet skylight. Photochemistry and Photobiology, 31 (1). pp. 59-65. ISSN 0031-8655

Guerrero, A. and Smith, Leonard A. (2003) Towards coherent estimation of the correlation dimension. Physics Letters A, 318 (4-5). pp. 373-379. ISSN 0375-9601

Guerrero, Alexandra and Smith, Leonard A. (2005) A maximum likelihood estimator for long-range persistence. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 355 (2-4). pp. 619-632. ISSN 0378-4371

Hagedorn, Renate and Smith, Leonard A. (2009) Communicating the value of probabilistic forecasts with Weather Roulette. Meteorological Applications, 16 (2). pp. 143-155. ISSN 1350-4827

Hansen, James A. and Smith, Leonard A. (2001) Probabilistic noise reduction. Tellus Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 53 (5). pp. 585-598. ISSN 0280-6495

Hansen, James A. and Smith, Leonard A. (2000) The role of operational constraints in selecting supplementary observations. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 57 (17). pp. 2859-2871. ISSN 0022-4928

Haycroft, Rebecca, Pronzato, Luc, Wynn, Henry P. and Zhigljavski, Anthony (2008) Optimal experimental design and quadratic optimisation. Tatra Mountains Mathematical Publications, 29 . pp. 115-123. ISSN 1210-3195

Hayter, A. J., Liu, W. and Wynn, Henry P. (2007) Easy-to-construct confidence bands for comparing two simple linear regression lines. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 137 (4). pp. 1213-1225. ISSN 0378-3758

Hayter, A.J., Wynn, Henry P. and Liu, W. (2006) Slope modified confidence bands for a simple linear regression model. Statistical Methodology, 3 (2). pp. 186-192. ISSN 1572-3127

Hinz, Juri and Fehr, Max (2010) Storage costs in commodity option pricing. SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, 1 (1). pp. 729-751. ISSN 1945-497X

Imbers, J., Lopez, A., Huntingford, C. and Allen, M. R. (2013) Testing the robustness of the anthropogenic climate change detection statements using different empirical models. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 118 (8). pp. 3192-3199. ISSN 2169-897X

Imbers, Jara, Lopez, Ana, Huntingford, Chris and Allen, Myles R. (2014) Sensitivity of climate change detection and attribution to the characterization of internal climate variability. Journal of Climate, 27 (10). pp. 3477-3491. ISSN 0894-8755

Judd, Kevin, Reynolds, Carolyn A., Rosmond, Thomas E. and Smith, Leonard A. (2008) The geometry of model error. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 65 (6). pp. 1749-1772. ISSN 0022-4928

Judd, Kevin and Smith, Leonard A. (2001) Indistinguishable states I: perfect model scenario. Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, 151 (2-4). pp. 125-141. ISSN 0167-2789

Judd, Kevin and Smith, Leonard A. (2004) Indistinguishable states II: the imperfect model scenario. Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, 196 (3-4). pp. 224-242. ISSN 0167-2789

Judd, Kevin, Smith, Leonard A. and Weisheimer, Antje (2004) Gradient free descent: shadowing, and state estimation using limited derivative informations. Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, 190 (3-4). pp. 153-166. ISSN 0167-2789

Judd, Kevin, Smith, Leonard A. and Weisheimer, Antje (2007) How good is an ensemble at capturing truth?: using bounding boxes for forecast evaluation. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 133 (626). pp. 1309-1325. ISSN 0035-9009

Khare, Shree and Smith, Leonard A. (2011) Data assimilation: a fully nonlinear approach to ensemble formation using indistinguishable states. Monthly Weather Review, 139 (7). pp. 2080-2097. ISSN 0027-0644

Kwasniok, Frank and Smith, Leonard A. (2004) Real-time construction of optimized predictions from data streams. Physical Review Letters, 92 (16). pp. 116-120. ISSN 0031-9007

Liu, Wei, Wynn, H. P. and Hayter, A. J. (2008) Statistical inferences for linear regression models when the covariates have functional relationships: polynomial regression. Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, 78 (4). pp. 315-324. ISSN 0094-9655

Lodge, Martin and Wegrich, Kai (2005) Governing multi-level governance: comparing domain dynamics in German land-local relationships and prisons. Public Administration, 83 (2). pp. 417-442. ISSN 0033-3298

Lopez, Ana, Suckling, Emma B. and Smith, Leonard A. (2014) Robustness of pattern scaled climate change scenarios for adaptation decision support. Climatic Change, 122 (4). pp. 555-566. ISSN 0165-0009

Machete, Reason L. (2013) Contrasting probabilistic scoring rules. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 143 (10). pp. 1781-1790. ISSN 0378-3758

Machete, Reason L. (2013) Model imperfection and predicting predictability. International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos, 23 (08). 1330027-1-1330027-17. ISSN 0218-1274

McSharry, P. E., Clifford, G. D., Tarassenko, L. and Smith, Leonard A. (2003) A dynamical model for generating synthetic electrocardiogram signals. IEEE Transactions on Biomedical Engineering, 50 (3). pp. 289-294. ISSN 0018-9294

McSharry, P. E., He, T., Smith, Leonard A. and Tarassenko, L. (2002) Linear and non-linear methods for automatic seizure detection in scalp electro-encephalogram recordings. Medical and Biological Engineering and Computing, 40 (4). pp. 447-461. ISSN 0140-0118

McSharry, P.E., Smith, Leonard A. and Tarassenko, L. (2003) Comparison of predictability of epileptic seizures by a linear and a nonlinear method. IEEE Transactions on Biomedical Engineering, 50 (5). pp. 628-633. ISSN 0018-9294

McSharry, Patrick E., Clifford, G. D., Tarassenko, L. and Smith, Leonard A. (2002) A method for generating an artificial RR tachogram of a typical healthy human over 24-hours. Computers in Cardiology, 29 . pp. 225-228. ISSN 0276-6574

McSharry, Patrick E., Ellepola, Jerome H., von Hardenberg, Jost, Smith, Leonard A., Kenning, David B. R. and Judd, Kevin (2002) Spatio-temporal analysis of nucleate pool boiling: identification of nucleation sites using non-orthogonal empirical functions. International Journal of Heat and Mass Transfer, 45 (2). pp. 237-253. ISSN 0017-9310

McSharry, Patrick E., He, T., Smith, Leonard A. and Tarassenko, L. (2002) Linear and non-linear methods for automatic seizure detection in scalp electro-encephalogram recordings. Medical & Biological Engineering & Computing, 40 (4). pp. 447-461. ISSN 0140-0118

McSharry, Patrick E. and Smith, Leonard A. (1999) Better nonlinear models from noisy data: attractors with maximum likelihood. Physical Review Letters, 83 (21). pp. 4285-4288. ISSN 0031-9007

McSharry, Patrick E. and Smith, Leonard A. (2004) Consistent nonlinear dynamics: identifying model inadequacy. Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, 192 (1-2). pp. 1-22. ISSN 0167-2789

McSharry, Patrick E. and Smith, Leonard A. (2002) Consistent nonlinear dynamics: identifying model inadequacy. Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, 192 (1-2). pp. 1-22. ISSN 0167-2789 (Unpublished)

McSharry, Patrick E., Smith, Leonard A. and Tarassenko, Lionel (2003) Prediction of epileptic seizures: are nonlinear methods relevant? Nature Medicine, 9 (3). pp. 241-242. ISSN 1078-8956

Moroz, Irene M., Smith, Leonard A. and Hide, Raymond (1998) Synchronized chaos in coupled double disk homopolar dynamos. International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos, 8 (11). pp. 2125-2133. ISSN 0218-1274

Naiman, D.Q. and Wynn, Henry P. (2005) The algebra of Bonferroni bounds: discrete tubes and extensions. Metrika, 62 (2-3). pp. 139-147. ISSN 0026-1335

Oreskes, Naomi, Stainforth, David A. and Smith, Leonard A. (2010) Adaptation to global warming: do climate models tell us what we need to know? Philosophy of Science (Proceedings), 77 (5). pp. 1012-1028. ISSN 0031-8248

Orrell, D., Smith, Leonard A., Barkmeijer, J. and Palmer, T. N. (2001) Model error in weather forecasting. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 8 (6). pp. 357-371. ISSN 1023-5809

Orrell, David and Smith, Leonard A. (2003) Visualising bifurcations in high dimensional systems: the spectral bifurcation diagram. International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos, 13 (10). pp. 3015-3027. ISSN 0218-1274

Otto, Friederike E. L., Ferro, Christopher A. T., Fricker, Thomas E. and Suckling, Emma B. (2013) On judging the credibility of climate predictions. Climatic Change, Online . pp. 1-4. ISSN 0165-0009 (In Press)

Paparella, F., Provenzale, A., Smith, Leonard A., Taricco, C. and Vio, R. (1997) Local random analogue prediction of nonlinear processes. Physics Letters A, 235 (3). pp. 233-240. ISSN 0375-9601

Perry, M.A., Atherton, M.A., Bates, R. A. and Wynn, Henry P. (2008) Bond graph based sensitivity and uncertainty analysis modelling for micro-scale multiphysics robust engineering design. Journal of the Franklin Institute, 345 (3). pp. 282-292. ISSN 0016-0032

Pistone, Giovanni, Riccomagno, E. and Wynn, Henry P. (2006) Polynomial ideals, monomial bases and a divided difference formula. Rendiconti dell'Istituto di Matematica dell'Università di Trieste, 37 . pp. 121-144. ISSN 0049-4704

Pronzato, Luc, Wynn, Henry P. and Zhigljavsky, Anatoly A (2005) Kantorovich-type inequalities for operators via D-optimal design theory. Linear Algebra and its Applications, 410 . pp. 160-169. ISSN 0024-3795

Provenzale, A., Smith, Leonard A., Vio, R. and Murante, G. (1992) Distinguishing between low-dimensional dynamics and randomness in measured time series. Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, 58 (1-4). pp. 31-49. ISSN 0167-2789

Ranger, Nicola and Niehörster, Falk (2012) Deep uncertainty in long-term hurricane risk: scenario generation and implications for future climate experiments. Global Environmental Change, 22 (3). pp. 703-712. ISSN 0959-3780

Rayner, R.F. (2011) Marine renewable energy. Science in Parliament, 68 (1). pp. 28-30.

Rayner, Ralph (2010) The U.S. integrated ocean observing system in a global context. Marine Technology Society Journal, 44 (6). pp. 26-31. ISSN 0025-3324

Roulston, M.S., Kaplan, D.T., Hardenberg, J. and Smith, Leonard A. (2003) Using medium-range weather forecasts to improve the value of wind energy production. Renewable Energy, 28 (4). pp. 585-602. ISSN 0960-1481

Roulston, M.S. and Smith, Leonard A. (2003) Combining dynamical and statistical ensembles. Tellus Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 55 (1). pp. 16-30. ISSN 0280-6495

Roulston, M.S. and Smith, Leonard A. (2004) The boy who cried wolf revisited: the impact of false alarm intolerance on cost-loss scenarios. Weather and Forecasting, 19 (2). pp. 391-397. ISSN 0882-8156

Roulston, Mark S, Ellepola, Jerome, von Hardenberg, Jost and Smith, Leonard A. (2005) Forecasting wave height probabilities with numerical weather prediction models. Ocean Engineering, 32 (14-15). pp. 1841-1863. ISSN 0029-8018

Roulston, Mark S. and Smith, Leonard A. (2002) Evaluating probabilistic forecasts using information theory. Monthly Weather Review, 130 (6). pp. 1653-1660. ISSN 0027-0644

Rowlands, Daniel J., Frame, David J., Ackerley, Duncan, Aina, Tolu, Booth, Ben B. B., Christensen, Carl, Collins, Matthew, Faull, Nicholas, Forest, Chris E., Grandey, Benjamin S., Gryspeerdt, Edward, Highwood, Eleanor J., Ingram, William J., Knight, Sylvia, Lopez, Ana, Massey, Neil, McNamara, Frances, Meinshausen, Nicolai, Piani, Claudio, Rosier, Suzanne M., Sanderson, Benjamin M., Smith, Leonard A., Stone, Dáithí A., Thurston, Milo, Yamazaki, Kuniko, Hiro Yamazaki, Y. and Allen, Myles R. (2012) Broad range of 2050 warming from an observationally constrained large climate model ensemble. Nature Geoscience, 5 (4). pp. 256-260. ISSN 1752-0894

Siegert, Stefan, Bröcker, Jochen and Kantz, Holger (2011) Predicting outliers in ensemble forecasts. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 137 (660). pp. 1887-1897. ISSN 0035-9009

Siegert, Stefan, Bröcker, Jochen and Kantz, Holger (2012) Rank histograms of stratified Monte Carlo ensembles. Monthly Weather Review, 140 (5). pp. 1558-1571. ISSN 0027-0644

Smith, Leonard A. (1992) Comments on the paper of R Smith, estimating dimension in noisy chaotic time series. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology), 54 (2). pp. 329-352. ISSN 1369-7412

Smith, Leonard A. (1992) Identification and prediction of low dimensional dynamics. Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, 58 (1-4). pp. 50-76. ISSN 0167-2789

Smith, Leonard A. (1988) Intrinsic limits on dimension calculations. Physics Letters A, 133 (6). pp. 283-288. ISSN 0375-9601

Smith, Leonard A. (1994) Local optimal prediction: exploiting strangeness and the variation of sensitivity to initial condition. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 348 (1688). pp. 371-381. ISSN 1364-503X

Smith, Leonard A. (2002) What might we learn from climate forecasts? Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 99 (Suppl.). pp. 2487-2492. ISSN 0027-8424

Smith, Leonard A. (1995) A personal overview of nonlinear time-series analysis from a chaos perspective - comments. Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, 22 (4). pp. 435-437. ISSN 0303-6898

Smith, Leonard A., Cuellar, Milena C., Du, Hailiang and Judd, Kevin (2010) Exploiting dynamical coherence: A geometric approach to parameter estimation in nonlinear models. Physics Letters A, 374 (26). pp. 2618-2623. ISSN 0375-9601

Smith, Leonard A., Du, Hailiang, Suckling, Emma B. and Niehörster, Falk (2014) Probabilistic skill in ensemble seasonal forecasts. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 140 (680). pp. 729-1128. ISSN 0035-9009

Smith, Leonard A., Fournier, J. D. and Spiegel, E. A. (1986) Lacunarity and intermittency in fluid turbulence. Physics Letters A, 114 (8-9). pp. 465-468. ISSN 0375-9601

Smith, Leonard A. and Hansen, James A. (2004) Extending the limits of ensemble forecast verification with the minimum spanning tree. Monthly Weather Review, 132 (6). pp. 1522-1528. ISSN 0027-0644

Smith, Leonard A. and Spiegel, E. A. (1985) Pattern formation by particles settling in viscous flows. Lecture Notes in Physics, 230 . pp. 306-318. ISSN 1616-6361

Smith, Leonard A. and Spiegel, E. A. (1987) Strange accumulators. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 497 (Chaoti). pp. 61-65. ISSN 0077-8923

Smith, Leonard A. and Stern, Nicholas (2011) Uncertainty in science and its role in climate policy. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 369 (1956). pp. 4818-4841. ISSN 1364-503X

Smith, Leonard A., Ziehmann, C. and Fraedrich, K. (1999) Uncertainty dynamics and predictability in chaotic systems. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 125 (560). pp. 2855-2886. ISSN 0035-9009

Stainforth, David A., Aina, T., Christensen, C., Collins, M., Faull, N., Frame, D. J., Kettleborough, J. A., Knight, S., Martin, A., Murphy, J. M., Piani, C., Sexton, D., Smith, Leonard A., Spicer, R. A., Thorpe, A. J. and Allen, M. R. (2005) Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases. Nature, 433 (7024). pp. 403-406. ISSN 0028-0836

Stainforth, David A., Allen, M. R., Tredger, Edward and Smith, Leonard A. (2007) Confidence, uncertainty and decision-support relevance in climate predictions. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 365 (1857). pp. 2145-2161. ISSN 1364-503X

Stainforth, David A. and Smith, Leonard A. (2012) Policy: clarify the limits of climate models. Nature, 489 (7415). p. 208. ISSN 0028-0836

Suckling, Emma B. and Smith, Leonard A. (2013) An evaluation of decadal probability forecasts from state-of-the-art climate models. Journal of Climate, 26 (23). pp. 9334-9347. ISSN 0894-8755

Surminski, Swenja and Lopez, Ana (2014) Concept of loss and damage of climate change – a new challenge for climate decision-making? a climate science perspective. Climate and Development . ISSN 1756-5529 (In Press)

Theiler, James and Smith, Leonard A. (1995) Anomalous convergence of Lyapunov exponent estimates. Physical Review E, 51 (4). pp. 3738-3741. ISSN 1539-3755

Visser, H., Buentgen, U., D'Arrigo, R. and Petersen, A.C. (2010) Detecting instabilities in tree-ring proxy calibration. Climate of the Past, 6 (3). 367 -377. ISSN 1814-9324

Watkins, N. W. (2013) Bunched black (and grouped grey) swans: dissipative and non-dissipative models of correlated extreme fluctuations in complex geosystems. Geophysical Research Letters, 40 (2). pp. 402-410. ISSN 0094-8276

Weisheimer, Antje, Smith, Leonard A. and Judd, Kevin (2005) A new view of forecast skill: bounding boxes from the DEMETER ensemble seasonal forecasts. Tellus Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 57 (3). pp. 265-279. ISSN 0280-6495

Wynn, Henry P. (2008) Algebraic solutions to the connectivity problem for mm-way layouts: interaction-contrast aliasing. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 138 (1). pp. 259-271. ISSN 0378-3758

Ziehmann, Christine, Smith, Leonard A. and Kurths, Jürgen (2000) Localized Lyapunov exponents and the prediction of predictability. Physics Letters A, 271 (4). pp. 237-251. ISSN 0375-9601

Ziehmann, Christine, Smith, Leonard A. and Kurths, Jürgen (1999) The bootstrap and Lyapunov exponents in deterministic chaos. Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, 126 (1-2). pp. 49-59. ISSN 0167-2789

Ziehmann-Schlumbohm, C., Fraedrich, K. and Smith, Leonard A. (1995) Ein internes Vorhersagbarkeitsexperiment im Lorenz-Modell. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 4 (1). pp. 16-21. ISSN 0941-2948

von Hardenberg, Jost, Kenning, David B. R., Xing, Huijuan and Smith, Leonard A. (2004) Identification of nucleation site interactions. International Journal of Heat and Fluid Flow, 25 (2). pp. 298-304. ISSN 0142-727X

Book Section

Barrieu, P. and El Karoui, N. (2008) Dynamic financial risk management. In: Yor, Marc, (ed.) Aspects of Mathematical Finance. Springer-Verlag, Paris, France, pp. 23-36. ISBN 9783540752585

Barrieu, Pauline (2008) Micro-assurance et derives climatiques. In: L'Art du Management. Les Echos, Paris, France. ISBN 9782842111816

Barrieu, Pauline and El Karoui , Nicole (2004) Optimal derivatives design under dynamic risk measures. In: Yin, George and Zhang, Qing , (eds.) Mathematics of Finance. Contemporary mathematics(351). American Mathematical Society , Providence, USA, pp. 13-26. ISBN 9780821834121

Barrieu, Pauline and Scaillet, Olivier (2010) A primer on weather derivatives. In: Filar, Jerzy A. and Haurie, Alain, (eds.) Uncertainty and Environmental Decision Making: a Handbook of Research and Best Practice. International series in operations research & management science(138). Springer, pp. 155-176. ISBN 9781441911285

Caines, Peter E., Deardon, R. and Wynn, Henry P. (2002) Conditional orthogonality and conditional stochastic realization. In: Directions in mathematical systems theory and optimization. Lecture Notes in Control and Information Sciences(286). Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, Berlin, Germany, pp. 71-84. ISBN 9783540000655

Dischel, Robert S. and Barrieu, Pauline (2002) Financial weather contracts and their application in risk management. In: Dischel, Robert S., (ed.) Climate Risk and the Weather Market: Financial Risk Management With Weather Hedges. Risk Books, London, UK, pp. 25-42. ISBN 9781899332526

Frigg, Roman (2014) Chance and determinism. In: Hájek, Alan and Hitchcock, Christopher, (eds.) The Oxford Handbook of Probability and Philosophy. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK. (In Press)

Frigg, Roman (2009) GRW theory (Ghirardi, Rimini, Weber model of quantum physics). In: Greenberger, Daniel, Hentschel, Klaus and Weinert, Friedel, (eds.) Compendium of Quantum Physics: Concepts, Experiments, History and Philosophy. Springer, pp. 266-270. ISBN 9783540706229

Frigg, Roman (2012) Grundprobleme der Statistischen Mechanik. In: Esfeld, Michael, (ed.) Philosophie Der Physik. Suhrkamp, Frankfurt am Main, pp. 325-341. ISBN 9783518296332

Frigg, Roman (2014) Los modelos y la ficción. In: Lorenzano, Pablo, (ed.) Modelos y Teorías En Biología. Prometeo, Buenos Aires, Argentina. (In Press)

Frigg, Roman (2009) Models in physics. In: Craig, E., (ed.) Routledge Encyclopedia of Philosophy. Routledge.

Frigg, Roman (2013) Qu'est-ce que c'est la méchanique statistique? In: Le Bihan, Sozig, (ed.) Précis De Philosophie De la Physique. Vuibert, Paris, pp. 152-176. ISBN 9782311011005

Frigg, Roman, Berkovitz, Joseph and Kronz, Fred (2011) The ergodic hierarchy. In: Zalta, Edward N., (ed.) The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy. Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.

Frigg, Roman, Bradley, Seamus, Machete, Reason L. and Smith, Leonard A. (2013) Probabilistic forecasting: why model imperfection is a poison pill. In: Andersen, Hanne, Dieks, Dennis, Gonzalez, Wenceslao, Ubel, Thomas and Wheeler, Gregory, (eds.) New Challenges to Philosophy of Science. The philosophy of science in a European perspective(4). Springer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, pp. 479-492. ISBN 9789400758445

Frigg, Roman and Hoefer, Carl (2014) Determinismo y probabilidad: una perspectiva humeana. In: Abeledo, Horacio, Miguel, Hernán and Paruelo, Jorge, (eds.) Contrafácticos, Causacion y Explicación. Universidad Nacional de General Sarmiento University Press, Buenos Aires, Argentina. (In Press)

Frigg, Roman and Howard, Catherine (2011) Fact and fiction in the neuropsychology of art. In: Schellekens, Elisabeth and Goldie, Peter, (eds.) The Aesthic Mind: Philosophy and Psychology. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK, pp. 54-70. ISBN 9780199691517

Lopez, Ana (2012) Regional implications. In: Booth, Colin A., Hammond, Felix, Lamond , Jessica and Proverbs , David G., (eds.) Solutions to climate change challenges in the built environment. Wiley-Blackwell, London, UK, pp. 23-32. ISBN 9781405195072

Lopez, Ana (2012) Understanding flood hazard. In: Jha, Abhas K., Bloch, Robin and Lamond , Jessica, (eds.) Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), (corp. ed.) Cities and flooding: a guide to integrated urban flood risk management for the 21st century. The World Bank, Washington, USA, pp. 51-129. ISBN 9780821388662

Riccomagno, Eva and Wynn, Henry P. (2010) An introduction to regression and errors in variables from an algebraic viewpoint. In: Approximate commutative algebra. Texts and Monographs in Symbolic Computation: A Series of the Research Institute for Symbolic Computation, Johannes Kepler University, Linz, Austria. Springer-Verlag , Vienna, Austria, pp. 193-203. ISBN 9783211993132

Smith, Leonard A. (1995) Accountability and error in ensemble prediction of baroclinic flows. In: Seminar on Predictability, 4-8 September 1995. ECMWF seminar proceedings,1. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK, pp. 351-368.

Smith, Leonard A. (1991) Applied chaos: quantifying complex systems. In: Atmanspacher, H., (ed.) Information Dynamics. NATO ASI series B(256). Plenum Press, New York, USA, pp. 97-102.

Smith, Leonard A. (2001) Disentangling uncertainty and error: on the predictability of nonlinear systems. In: Mees, Alistair I., (ed.) Nonlinear Dynamics and Statistics. Birkhauser, Boston, pp. 31-64. ISBN 9780817641634

Smith, Leonard A. (1993) Does a meeting in Santa Fe imply chaos? In: Weigend, Andreas S. and Gershenfeld, Neil A., (eds.) Time Series Prediction:Forecasting the Future and Understanding the Past: Proceedings of the Nato Advanced Research Workshop on. Santa Fe Institute studies in the sciences of complexity . Addison-Wesley Publishing Co., Reading, USA, pp. 323-344. ISBN 9780201626018

Smith, Leonard A. (1995) Locally optimized prediction of nonlinear systems: stochastic and deterministic. In: Tong, Howell, (ed.) Chaos and Forecasting. Nonlinear time series and chaos(2). World Scientific Publishing , Singapore. ISBN 9789810221263

Smith, Leonard A. (2003) Predictability and chaos. In: Holton, James R., Pyle, John and Curry, Judith A., (eds.) Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences. Academic Press, Amsterdam, London, pp. 1777-1785. ISBN 9780122270901

Smith, Leonard A. (1990) Quantifying chaos through predicitve flows and maps: computing unstable periodic orbits. In: Abraham, Neal B. and Albano, Alfonso, (eds.) Measures of Complexity and Chaos. NATO ASI series B(208). Plenum Press, New York, USA, pp. 359-366. ISBN 9780306433870

Smith, Leonard A. (1994) Turbulence in the River Severn: a dynamic systems approach. In: Beven, Keith J., Chatwin, Phillip C. and Millbank, John H., (eds.) Mixing and Transport in the Environment : a Memorial Volume for Catherine M. Allen (1954-1991). J. Wiley, Chichester, UK, pp. 383-399. ISBN 9780471941422

Smith, Leonard A. (1994) Visualizing predictability with chaotic ensembles. In: Luk, Franklin T., (ed.) Advanced Signal Processing: Algorithms, Architectures, and Implementations V (Proceedings Volume). SPIE, Bellingham, USA, pp. 293-304. ISBN 9780819416209

Smith, Leonard A. and Gilmour, Isla (1998) Enlightenment in shadows. In: Kadtke, James B and Bulsara, Adi, (eds.) Nonlinear Dynamics and Stochastic Systems Near the Millennium. AIP Conference Proceedings(411). American Institute of Physics, New York, United States, pp. 335-340. ISBN 9781563967368

Smith, Leonard A., Godfrey, K., Fox, P. and Warwick, K. (1991) A new technique for fault detection in multi-sensor probes. In: International Conference on Control '91, 25-28 March 1991. IEE conference publication. The Institution, London, UK, pp. 1062-1067. ISBN 9780852965092

Smith, Leonard A. and Petersen, Arthur (2014) Variations on reliability: connecting climate predictions to climate policy. In: Boumans, Marcel, Petersen, Arthur and Hon, Giora, (eds.) Error and uncertainty in scientific practice. History and philosophy of technoscience(1). Pickering & Chatto Publishers, London, UK, pp. 137-156. ISBN 9781848934160

Smith, Leonard A. and Roulston, Mark S. (2002) Weather and seasonal forecasting. In: Dischel, Robert, (ed.) Climate Risk and the Weather Market. Risk Books, London, pp. 115-126. ISBN 9781899332526

Surminski, Swenja (2013) The role of insurance risk transfer in encouraging climate investment in developing countries. In: Dupuy , Pierre-Marie and Viñuales , Jorge E., (eds.) Harnessing foreign investment to promote environmental protection. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 228-250. ISBN 9781107030770

Thieberger, R., Spiegel, E. A. and Smith, Leonard A. (1990) The dimensions of cosmic fractals. In: Krasner, Saul, (ed.) The Ubiquity of Chaos. American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington, USA, 197-217.. ISBN 9780871683502

Monograph

Barrieu, Pauline and Desgagne, Bernard Sinclair (2009) Economic policy when models disagree. Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy and Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, 4. Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy and Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London, UK.

Barrieu, Pauline and Fehr, Max (2011) Integrated EUA and CER price modeling and application for spread option pricing. Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy and Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment working papers, 40. Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy and Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London, UK.

Frigg, Roman (2002) Models and representation: why structures are not enough. Measurement in physics and economics discussion papers, Dietsch, Peter (ed.) 25/02. The London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK.

Gibbs, Peter, Hanlon, Michael, Hardaker, Paul, Hawkins, Ed, MacDonald, Averil, Maskell, Kathy, Mayfield, Heather, Mclean, Angela, Morris, Elizabeth, Mylne, Ken, Naylor, Mark, Palmer, Tim, Rawlins, Michael, Royse, Katherine, Smith, Leonard, So, Emily, Spiegelhalter, David, Stainforth, David A., Stewart, Ian, Tyler, Chris, de Vocht, Frank, Brown, Tracey and Innocent, Tabitha (2013) Making sense of uncertainty: why uncertainty is part of science. Sense About Science, London.

Giovagnoli, Alessandra and Wynn, Henry (2012) (U,V) ordering and a duality theorem for risk aversion and Lorenz type orderings. LSE Philosophy Papers, Centre for Philosophy of Natural and Social Science , London, UK.

Hayter, A.J., Wynn, Henry P. and Liu, W. (2004) Confidence bands for regression: the independence point method. S3RI Methodology Working Papers, M05/17. Southampton Statistical Sciences Research Institute, Southampton, UK.

Kilminster, Devin , Clark, Liam, Roulston , Mark, Ziehmann , Christine, Bröcker, Jochen and Smith, Leonard (2004) From MOS to eMOS: generalising model output statistics for full ensemble forecasts. Centre for the Analysis of Time Series, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK.

Mellor, Florence K. (1984) Particulate dispersal in a time dependent flow [in Dynamic differentiation, summer study program in Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution]. WHOI technical report, 84-44. Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, USA.

Roulston, Mark S, Ziehmann, Christine and Smith, Leonard A. (2001) A forecast reliability index from ensembles: a comparison of methods. London School of Economics and Political Science, London.

Smith, Leonard A., Roulston, Mark S and von Hardenberg, Jost (2001) End to end ensemble forecasting: towards evaluating the economic value of an ensemble prediction system. Technical memorandum, 336. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK.

Conference or Workshop Item

Bruynooghe, Daniel (2010) A copula based differential measure of local correlation. In: Relating research to reality: interdisciplinary ideas for a changing world. LSE PhD student poster exhibition, 26 May 2010, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK. (Unpublished)

Jarman, Alex and Smith, Leonard A. (2011) Small-number statistics, common sense, and profit: challenges and non-challenges for hurricane forecasting. In: LSE Research Day 2011: The Early Career Researcher, 26 May 2011, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK. (Unpublished)

McSharry, P.E., Clifford, G. D., Tarassenko, L. and Smith, Leonard A. (2002) Method for generating an artificial RR tachogram of a typical healthy human over 24-hours. In: Computers in Cardiology , 22-25 Sept. 2002 , Memphis, USA.

Smith, Leonard A. (2000) Limits to Predictability in 2000 and 2100. In: Proceedings of IEEE 2000 Adaptive Systems for Signal Processing, Communications, and Control Symposium, 01 Oct - 04 Oct 2000, Lake Louise, Alta. , Canada .

Smith, Leonard A. (2003) Predictability past predictability present. In: ECMWF Seminar on Predictability, 2002, Reading, UK.

Smith, Leonard A. and Gilmour, Isla (1997) Accountability and internal consistency in ensemble formation. In: Workshop on Predictability, 20 - 22 October 1997, Reading, UK.

Smith, Leonard A. and McSharry, Patrick E. (1998) Just do it: reductionism, modelling and black-box forecasting. In: International Workshop on Advanced Black-Box Techniques for Nonlinear Modeling: Theory and Applications, 08 - 10 July 1998, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Belgium.

Thompson, Erica and Smith, Leonard A. (2014) The hawkmoth effect. In: LSE Research Festival 2014, 8 May 2014, The London School of Economics, London, UK. (Unpublished)

Wheatcroft, Edward (2013) Will it rain tomorrow? Improving probabilistic forecasts. In: LSE Research Festival 2013: Exploring Research Stories Through Visual Images, 01 March 2013, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK. (Unpublished)

Book

Petersen, Arthur (2012) Simulating nature: a philosophical study of computer-simulation uncertainties and their role in climate science and policy advice. Taylor & Francis, Boca Raton, USA. ISBN 9781466500624

Smith, Leonard A. (2007) Chaos: a very short introduction. Very short introductions , 159 . Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK. ISBN 0192853783

Newspaper/Magazine Article

Smith, Leonard A. (2000) Feeding frenzy is short of juice. Times Higher Education (18 Aug 2000)

Smith, Leonard A. (2007) Letters to the editor: unproven theories have value. Times (30 Nov 2007)

Smith, Leonard A. (2000) Rough survey of how ticks all add up. Times Higher Education (26 May 2000)

Teaching Resource

Smith, Leonard A. (1997) The maintenance of uncertainty. [Teaching Resource]

This list was generated on Wed Sep 17 00:31:13 2014 BST.