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Article

Smith, Leonard A., Du, Hailiang, Suckling, Emma B. and Niehörster, Falk (2014) Probabilistic skill in ensemble seasonal forecasts. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 140 (680). pp. 729-1128. ISSN 0035-9009

Lopez, Ana, Suckling, Emma B. and Smith, Leonard A. (2014) Robustness of pattern scaled climate change scenarios for adaptation decision support. Climatic Change, 122 (4). pp. 555-566. ISSN 0165-0009

Du, Hailiang and Smith, Leonard A. (2014) Pseudo-orbit data assimilation. part I: the perfect model scenario. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 71 (2). pp. 469-482. ISSN 0022-4928

Du, Hailiang and Smith, Leonard A. (2014) Pseudo-orbit data assimilation. part II: the perfect model scenario. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 71 (2). pp. 483-495. ISSN 0022-4928

Frigg, Roman, Bradley, Seamus, Du, Hailiang and Smith, Leonard A. (2014) Laplace's demon and the adventures of his apprentices. Philosophy of Science, 81 (1). pp. 31-59. ISSN 0031-8248

Frigg, Roman, Smith, Leonard A. and Stainforth, David A. (2013) The myopia of imperfect climate models: the case of UKCP09. Philosophy of Science, 80 (5). pp. 886-897. ISSN 0031-8248

Glendinning, Paul and Smith, Leonard A. (2013) Lacunarity and period-doubling. Dynamical Systems . pp. 1-11. ISSN 1468-9367

Suckling, Emma B. and Smith, Leonard A. (2013) An evaluation of decadal probability forecasts from state-of-the-art climate models. Journal of Climate, 26 (23). pp. 9334-9347. ISSN 0894-8755

Du, Hailiang and Smith, Leonard A. (2012) Parameter estimation through ignorance. Physical Review E, 86 (1). 016213. ISSN 1539-3755

Beven, Keith, Buytaert, Wouter and Smith, Leonard A. (2012) On virtual observatories and modelled realities (or why discharge must be treated as a virtual variable). Hydrological Processes, 26 (12). pp. 1905-1908. ISSN 0885-6087

Rowlands, Daniel J., Frame, David J., Ackerley, Duncan, Aina, Tolu, Booth, Ben B. B., Christensen, Carl, Collins, Matthew, Faull, Nicholas, Forest, Chris E., Grandey, Benjamin S., Gryspeerdt, Edward, Highwood, Eleanor J., Ingram, William J., Knight, Sylvia, Lopez, Ana, Massey, Neil, McNamara, Frances, Meinshausen, Nicolai, Piani, Claudio, Rosier, Suzanne M., Sanderson, Benjamin M., Smith, Leonard A., Stone, Dáithí A., Thurston, Milo, Yamazaki, Kuniko, Hiro Yamazaki, Y. and Allen, Myles R. (2012) Broad range of 2050 warming from an observationally constrained large climate model ensemble. Nature Geoscience, 5 (4). pp. 256-260. ISSN 1752-0894

Stainforth, David A. and Smith, Leonard A. (2012) Policy: clarify the limits of climate models. Nature, 489 (7415). p. 208. ISSN 0028-0836

Khare, Shree and Smith, Leonard A. (2011) Data assimilation: a fully nonlinear approach to ensemble formation using indistinguishable states. Monthly Weather Review, 139 (7). pp. 2080-2097. ISSN 0027-0644

Smith, Leonard A. and Stern, Nicholas (2011) Uncertainty in science and its role in climate policy. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 369 (1956). pp. 4818-4841. ISSN 1364-503X

Oreskes, Naomi, Stainforth, David A. and Smith, Leonard A. (2010) Adaptation to global warming: do climate models tell us what we need to know? Philosophy of Science (Proceedings), 77 (5). pp. 1012-1028. ISSN 0031-8248

Smith, Leonard A., Cuellar, Milena C., Du, Hailiang and Judd, Kevin (2010) Exploiting dynamical coherence: A geometric approach to parameter estimation in nonlinear models. Physics Letters A, 374 (26). pp. 2618-2623. ISSN 0375-9601

Ghil, Michael, Read, Peter and Smith, Leonard A. (2010) Geophysical flows as dynamical systems: the influence of Hide's experiments. Astronomy and Geophysics, 51 (4). 4.28-4.35. ISSN 1366-8781

Hagedorn, Renate and Smith, Leonard A. (2009) Communicating the value of probabilistic forecasts with Weather Roulette. Meteorological Applications, 16 (2). pp. 143-155. ISSN 1350-4827

Bröcker, Jochen and Smith, Leonard A. (2008) From ensemble forecasts to predictive distribution functions. Tellus Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 60 (4). pp. 663-678. ISSN 0280-6495

Judd, Kevin, Reynolds, Carolyn A., Rosmond, Thomas E. and Smith, Leonard A. (2008) The geometry of model error. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 65 (6). pp. 1749-1772. ISSN 0022-4928

Stainforth, David A., Allen, M. R., Tredger, Edward and Smith, Leonard A. (2007) Confidence, uncertainty and decision-support relevance in climate predictions. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 365 (1857). pp. 2145-2161. ISSN 1364-503X

Judd, Kevin, Smith, Leonard A. and Weisheimer, Antje (2007) How good is an ensemble at capturing truth?: using bounding boxes for forecast evaluation. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 133 (626). pp. 1309-1325. ISSN 0035-9009

Bröcker, Jochen and Smith, Leonard A. (2007) Increasing the reliability of reliability diagrams. Weather and Forecasting, 22 (3). pp. 651-661. ISSN 0882-8156

Bröcker, Jochen and Smith, Leonard A. (2007) Scoring probabilistic forecasts: the importance of being proper. Weather and Forecasting, 22 (2). pp. 382-388. ISSN 0882-8156

Roulston, Mark S, Ellepola, Jerome, von Hardenberg, Jost and Smith, Leonard A. (2005) Forecasting wave height probabilities with numerical weather prediction models. Ocean Engineering, 32 (14-15). pp. 1841-1863. ISSN 0029-8018

Guerrero, Alexandra and Smith, Leonard A. (2005) A maximum likelihood estimator for long-range persistence. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 355 (2-4). pp. 619-632. ISSN 0378-4371

Weisheimer, Antje, Smith, Leonard A. and Judd, Kevin (2005) A new view of forecast skill: bounding boxes from the DEMETER ensemble seasonal forecasts. Tellus Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 57 (3). pp. 265-279. ISSN 0280-6495

Stainforth, David A., Aina, T., Christensen, C., Collins, M., Faull, N., Frame, D. J., Kettleborough, J. A., Knight, S., Martin, A., Murphy, J. M., Piani, C., Sexton, D., Smith, Leonard A., Spicer, R. A., Thorpe, A. J. and Allen, M. R. (2005) Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases. Nature, 433 (7024). pp. 403-406. ISSN 0028-0836

Altalo, Mary G. and Smith, Leonard A. (2004) Using ensemble weather forecasts to manage utilities risk. Environmental Finance, Octobe (Supple). pp. 48-49. ISSN 1468-8573

Judd, Kevin and Smith, Leonard A. (2004) Indistinguishable states II: the imperfect model scenario. Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, 196 (3-4). pp. 224-242. ISSN 0167-2789

Smith, Leonard A. and Hansen, James A. (2004) Extending the limits of ensemble forecast verification with the minimum spanning tree. Monthly Weather Review, 132 (6). pp. 1522-1528. ISSN 0027-0644

McSharry, Patrick E. and Smith, Leonard A. (2004) Consistent nonlinear dynamics: identifying model inadequacy. Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, 192 (1-2). pp. 1-22. ISSN 0167-2789

Golobic, I., Pavlovic, E., von Hardenberg, J., Berry, M., Nelson, R.A., Kenning, D.B.R. and Smith, Leonard A. (2004) Comparison of a mechanistic model for nucleate boiling with experimental spatio-temporal data. Chemical Engineering Research and Design, 82 (4). pp. 435-444. ISSN 0263-8762

Judd, Kevin, Smith, Leonard A. and Weisheimer, Antje (2004) Gradient free descent: shadowing, and state estimation using limited derivative informations. Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, 190 (3-4). pp. 153-166. ISSN 0167-2789

von Hardenberg, Jost, Kenning, David B. R., Xing, Huijuan and Smith, Leonard A. (2004) Identification of nucleation site interactions. International Journal of Heat and Fluid Flow, 25 (2). pp. 298-304. ISSN 0142-727X

Kwasniok, Frank and Smith, Leonard A. (2004) Real-time construction of optimized predictions from data streams. Physical Review Letters, 92 (16). pp. 116-120. ISSN 0031-9007

Roulston, M.S. and Smith, Leonard A. (2004) The boy who cried wolf revisited: the impact of false alarm intolerance on cost-loss scenarios. Weather and Forecasting, 19 (2). pp. 391-397. ISSN 0882-8156

Guerrero, A. and Smith, Leonard A. (2003) Towards coherent estimation of the correlation dimension. Physics Letters A, 318 (4-5). pp. 373-379. ISSN 0375-9601

Orrell, David and Smith, Leonard A. (2003) Visualising bifurcations in high dimensional systems: the spectral bifurcation diagram. International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos, 13 (10). pp. 3015-3027. ISSN 0218-1274

Roulston, M.S., Kaplan, D.T., Hardenberg, J. and Smith, Leonard A. (2003) Using medium-range weather forecasts to improve the value of wind energy production. Renewable Energy, 28 (4). pp. 585-602. ISSN 0960-1481

McSharry, Patrick E., Smith, Leonard A. and Tarassenko, Lionel (2003) Prediction of epileptic seizures: are nonlinear methods relevant? Nature Medicine, 9 (3). pp. 241-242. ISSN 1078-8956

Roulston, M.S. and Smith, Leonard A. (2003) Combining dynamical and statistical ensembles. Tellus Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 55 (1). pp. 16-30. ISSN 0280-6495

McSharry, P.E., Smith, Leonard A. and Tarassenko, L. (2003) Comparison of predictability of epileptic seizures by a linear and a nonlinear method. IEEE Transactions on Biomedical Engineering, 50 (5). pp. 628-633. ISSN 0018-9294

McSharry, P. E., Clifford, G. D., Tarassenko, L. and Smith, Leonard A. (2003) A dynamical model for generating synthetic electrocardiogram signals. IEEE Transactions on Biomedical Engineering, 50 (3). pp. 289-294. ISSN 0018-9294

McSharry, Patrick E., Clifford, G. D., Tarassenko, L. and Smith, Leonard A. (2002) A method for generating an artificial RR tachogram of a typical healthy human over 24-hours. Computers in Cardiology, 29 . pp. 225-228. ISSN 0276-6574

McSharry, P. E., He, T., Smith, Leonard A. and Tarassenko, L. (2002) Linear and non-linear methods for automatic seizure detection in scalp electro-encephalogram recordings. Medical and Biological Engineering and Computing, 40 (4). pp. 447-461. ISSN 0140-0118

Roulston, Mark S. and Smith, Leonard A. (2002) Evaluating probabilistic forecasts using information theory. Monthly Weather Review, 130 (6). pp. 1653-1660. ISSN 0027-0644

Smith, Leonard A. (2002) What might we learn from climate forecasts? Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 99 (Suppl.). pp. 2487-2492. ISSN 0027-8424

McSharry, Patrick E., Ellepola, Jerome H., von Hardenberg, Jost, Smith, Leonard A., Kenning, David B. R. and Judd, Kevin (2002) Spatio-temporal analysis of nucleate pool boiling: identification of nucleation sites using non-orthogonal empirical functions. International Journal of Heat and Mass Transfer, 45 (2). pp. 237-253. ISSN 0017-9310

McSharry, Patrick E. and Smith, Leonard A. (2002) Consistent nonlinear dynamics: identifying model inadequacy. Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, 192 (1-2). pp. 1-22. ISSN 0167-2789 (Unpublished)

McSharry, Patrick E., He, T., Smith, Leonard A. and Tarassenko, L. (2002) Linear and non-linear methods for automatic seizure detection in scalp electro-encephalogram recordings. Medical & Biological Engineering & Computing, 40 (4). pp. 447-461. ISSN 0140-0118

Gilmour, Isla, Smith, Leonard A. and Buizza, Roberto (2001) Linear regime duration: is 24 hours a long time in synoptic weather forecasting? Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 58 (22). pp. 3525-3539. ISSN 0022-4928

Hansen, James A. and Smith, Leonard A. (2001) Probabilistic noise reduction. Tellus Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 53 (5). pp. 585-598. ISSN 0280-6495

Judd, Kevin and Smith, Leonard A. (2001) Indistinguishable states I: perfect model scenario. Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, 151 (2-4). pp. 125-141. ISSN 0167-2789

Orrell, D., Smith, Leonard A., Barkmeijer, J. and Palmer, T. N. (2001) Model error in weather forecasting. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 8 (6). pp. 357-371. ISSN 1023-5809

Hansen, James A. and Smith, Leonard A. (2000) The role of operational constraints in selecting supplementary observations. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 57 (17). pp. 2859-2871. ISSN 0022-4928

Ziehmann, Christine, Smith, Leonard A. and Kurths, Jürgen (2000) Localized Lyapunov exponents and the prediction of predictability. Physics Letters A, 271 (4). pp. 237-251. ISSN 0375-9601

McSharry, Patrick E. and Smith, Leonard A. (1999) Better nonlinear models from noisy data: attractors with maximum likelihood. Physical Review Letters, 83 (21). pp. 4285-4288. ISSN 0031-9007

Smith, Leonard A., Ziehmann, C. and Fraedrich, K. (1999) Uncertainty dynamics and predictability in chaotic systems. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 125 (560). pp. 2855-2886. ISSN 0035-9009

Ziehmann, Christine, Smith, Leonard A. and Kurths, Jürgen (1999) The bootstrap and Lyapunov exponents in deterministic chaos. Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, 126 (1-2). pp. 49-59. ISSN 0167-2789

Moroz, Irene M., Smith, Leonard A. and Hide, Raymond (1998) Synchronized chaos in coupled double disk homopolar dynamos. International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos, 8 (11). pp. 2125-2133. ISSN 0218-1274

Paparella, F., Provenzale, A., Smith, Leonard A., Taricco, C. and Vio, R. (1997) Local random analogue prediction of nonlinear processes. Physics Letters A, 235 (3). pp. 233-240. ISSN 0375-9601

Allen, Myles R. and Smith, Leonard A. (1997) Optimal filtering in singular spectrum analysis. Physics Letters A, 234 (6). pp. 419-428. ISSN 0375-9601

Allen, Myles R. and Smith, Leonard A. (1996) Monte Carlo SSA: detecting irregular oscillations in the presence of colored noise. Journal of Climate, 9 (12). pp. 3373-3404. ISSN 0894-8755

Theiler, James and Smith, Leonard A. (1995) Anomalous convergence of Lyapunov exponent estimates. Physical Review E, 51 (4). pp. 3738-3741. ISSN 1539-3755

Ziehmann-Schlumbohm, C., Fraedrich, K. and Smith, Leonard A. (1995) Ein internes Vorhersagbarkeitsexperiment im Lorenz-Modell. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 4 (1). pp. 16-21. ISSN 0941-2948

Smith, Leonard A. (1995) A personal overview of nonlinear time-series analysis from a chaos perspective - comments. Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, 22 (4). pp. 435-437. ISSN 0303-6898

Allen, Myles R. and Smith, Leonard A. (1994) Investigating the origins and significance of low-frequency modes of climate variability. Geophysical Research Letters, 21 (10). pp. 883-886. ISSN 0094-8276

Smith, Leonard A. (1994) Local optimal prediction: exploiting strangeness and the variation of sensitivity to initial condition. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 348 (1688). pp. 371-381. ISSN 1364-503X

Allen, Myles R., Read, Peter L. and Smith, Leonard A. (1992) Temperature oscillations. Nature, 359 (6397). p. 679. ISSN 0028-0836

Provenzale, A., Smith, Leonard A., Vio, R. and Murante, G. (1992) Distinguishing between low-dimensional dynamics and randomness in measured time series. Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, 58 (1-4). pp. 31-49. ISSN 0167-2789

Smith, Leonard A. (1992) Identification and prediction of low dimensional dynamics. Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, 58 (1-4). pp. 50-76. ISSN 0167-2789

Allen, Myles R., Read, Peter L. and Smith, Leonard A. (1992) Temperature time-series? Nature, 355 (6362). p. 686. ISSN 0028-0836

Smith, Leonard A. (1992) Comments on the paper of R Smith, estimating dimension in noisy chaotic time series. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology), 54 (2). pp. 329-352. ISSN 1369-7412

Smith, Leonard A. (1988) Intrinsic limits on dimension calculations. Physics Letters A, 133 (6). pp. 283-288. ISSN 0375-9601

Smith, Leonard A. and Spiegel, E. A. (1987) Strange accumulators. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 497 (Chaoti). pp. 61-65. ISSN 0077-8923

Smith, Leonard A., Fournier, J. D. and Spiegel, E. A. (1986) Lacunarity and intermittency in fluid turbulence. Physics Letters A, 114 (8-9). pp. 465-468. ISSN 0375-9601

Smith, Leonard A. and Spiegel, E. A. (1985) Pattern formation by particles settling in viscous flows. Lecture Notes in Physics, 230 . pp. 306-318. ISSN 1616-6361

Green, A. E. S., Cross, K. R. and Smith, Leonard A. (1980) Improved analytic characterization of ultraviolet skylight. Photochemistry and Photobiology, 31 (1). pp. 59-65. ISSN 0031-8655

Book Section

Frigg, Roman, Bradley, Seamus, Du, Hailiang and Smith, Leonard A. (2014) Model error and ensemble forecasting: a cautionary tale. In: Guo, Guichun C. and Liu, Chuang, (eds.) Scientific Explanation and Methodology of Science: Proceedings of Sems 2012, Taiyuan, China. World Scientific, Singapore, pp. 58-68. ISBN 978-9814596633 (In Press)

Smith, Leonard A. and Petersen, Arthur (2014) Variations on reliability: connecting climate predictions to climate policy. In: Boumans, Marcel, Petersen, Arthur and Hon, Giora, (eds.) Error and uncertainty in scientific practice. History and philosophy of technoscience(1). Pickering & Chatto Publishers, London, UK, pp. 137-156. ISBN 9781848934160

Frigg, Roman, Bradley, Seamus, Machete, Reason L. and Smith, Leonard A. (2013) Probabilistic forecasting: why model imperfection is a poison pill. In: Andersen, Hanne, Dieks, Dennis, Gonzalez, Wenceslao, Ubel, Thomas and Wheeler, Gregory, (eds.) New Challenges to Philosophy of Science. The philosophy of science in a European perspective(4). Springer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, pp. 479-492. ISBN 9789400758445

Smith, Leonard A. (2006) Predictability past predictability present. In: Palmer, Tim and Hagedorn, Renate, (eds.) Predictability of Weather and Climate. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 217-250. ISBN 9780521848824

Smith, Leonard A. (2003) Predictability and chaos. In: Holton, James R., Pyle, John and Curry, Judith A., (eds.) Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences. Academic Press, Amsterdam, London, pp. 1777-1785. ISBN 9780122270901

Smith, Leonard A. and Roulston, Mark S. (2002) Weather and seasonal forecasting. In: Dischel, Robert, (ed.) Climate Risk and the Weather Market. Risk Books, London, pp. 115-126. ISBN 9781899332526

Smith, Leonard A. (2001) Disentangling uncertainty and error: on the predictability of nonlinear systems. In: Mees, Alistair I., (ed.) Nonlinear Dynamics and Statistics. Birkhauser, Boston, pp. 31-64. ISBN 9780817641634

Smith, Leonard A. and Gilmour, Isla (1998) Enlightenment in shadows. In: Kadtke, James B and Bulsara, Adi, (eds.) Nonlinear Dynamics and Stochastic Systems Near the Millennium. AIP Conference Proceedings(411). American Institute of Physics, New York, United States, pp. 335-340. ISBN 9781563967368

Smith, Leonard A. (1995) Accountability and error in ensemble prediction of baroclinic flows. In: Seminar on Predictability, 4-8 September 1995. ECMWF seminar proceedings,1. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK, pp. 351-368.

Smith, Leonard A. (1995) Locally optimized prediction of nonlinear systems: stochastic and deterministic. In: Tong, Howell, (ed.) Chaos and Forecasting. Nonlinear time series and chaos(2). World Scientific Publishing , Singapore. ISBN 9789810221263

Smith, Leonard A. (1994) Visualizing predictability with chaotic ensembles. In: Luk, Franklin T., (ed.) Advanced Signal Processing: Algorithms, Architectures, and Implementations V (Proceedings Volume). SPIE, Bellingham, USA, pp. 293-304. ISBN 9780819416209

Smith, Leonard A. (1994) Turbulence in the River Severn: a dynamic systems approach. In: Beven, Keith J., Chatwin, Phillip C. and Millbank, John H., (eds.) Mixing and Transport in the Environment : a Memorial Volume for Catherine M. Allen (1954-1991). J. Wiley, Chichester, UK, pp. 383-399. ISBN 9780471941422

Smith, Leonard A. (1993) Does a meeting in Santa Fe imply chaos? In: Weigend, Andreas S. and Gershenfeld, Neil A., (eds.) Time Series Prediction:Forecasting the Future and Understanding the Past: Proceedings of the Nato Advanced Research Workshop on. Santa Fe Institute studies in the sciences of complexity . Addison-Wesley Publishing Co., Reading, USA, pp. 323-344. ISBN 9780201626018

Smith, Leonard A. (1991) Applied chaos: quantifying complex systems. In: Atmanspacher, H., (ed.) Information Dynamics. NATO ASI series B(256). Plenum Press, New York, USA, pp. 97-102.

Smith, Leonard A., Godfrey, K., Fox, P. and Warwick, K. (1991) A new technique for fault detection in multi-sensor probes. In: International Conference on Control '91, 25-28 March 1991. IEE conference publication. The Institution, London, UK, pp. 1062-1067. ISBN 9780852965092

Thieberger, R., Spiegel, E. A. and Smith, Leonard A. (1990) The dimensions of cosmic fractals. In: Krasner, Saul, (ed.) The Ubiquity of Chaos. American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington, USA, 197-217.. ISBN 9780871683502

Smith, Leonard A. (1990) Quantifying chaos through predicitve flows and maps: computing unstable periodic orbits. In: Abraham, Neal B. and Albano, Alfonso, (eds.) Measures of Complexity and Chaos. NATO ASI series B(208). Plenum Press, New York, USA, pp. 359-366. ISBN 9780306433870

Monograph

Gibbs, Peter, Hanlon, Michael, Hardaker, Paul, Hawkins, Ed, MacDonald, Averil, Maskell, Kathy, Mayfield, Heather, Mclean, Angela, Morris, Elizabeth, Mylne, Ken, Naylor, Mark, Palmer, Tim, Rawlins, Michael, Royse, Katherine, Smith, Leonard, So, Emily, Spiegelhalter, David, Stainforth, David A., Stewart, Ian, Tyler, Chris, de Vocht, Frank, Brown, Tracey and Innocent, Tabitha (2013) Making sense of uncertainty: why uncertainty is part of science. Sense About Science, London.

Kilminster, Devin , Clark, Liam, Roulston , Mark, Ziehmann , Christine, Bröcker, Jochen and Smith, Leonard (2004) From MOS to eMOS: generalising model output statistics for full ensemble forecasts. Centre for the Analysis of Time Series, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK.

Smith, Leonard A., Roulston, Mark S and von Hardenberg, Jost (2001) End to end ensemble forecasting: towards evaluating the economic value of an ensemble prediction system. Technical memorandum, 336. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK.

Roulston, Mark S, Ziehmann, Christine and Smith, Leonard A. (2001) A forecast reliability index from ensembles: a comparison of methods. London School of Economics and Political Science, London.

Conference or Workshop Item

Thompson, Erica and Smith, Leonard A. (2014) The hawkmoth effect. In: LSE Research Festival 2014, 8 May 2014, The London School of Economics, London, UK. (Unpublished)

Jarman, Alex and Smith, Leonard A. (2011) Small-number statistics, common sense, and profit: challenges and non-challenges for hurricane forecasting. In: LSE Research Day 2011: The Early Career Researcher, 26 May 2011, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK. (Unpublished)

Smith, Leonard A. (2003) Predictability past predictability present. In: ECMWF Seminar on Predictability, 2002, Reading, UK.

McSharry, P.E., Clifford, G. D., Tarassenko, L. and Smith, Leonard A. (2002) Method for generating an artificial RR tachogram of a typical healthy human over 24-hours. In: Computers in Cardiology , 22-25 Sept. 2002 , Memphis, USA.

Smith, Leonard A. (2000) Limits to Predictability in 2000 and 2100. In: Proceedings of IEEE 2000 Adaptive Systems for Signal Processing, Communications, and Control Symposium, 01 Oct - 04 Oct 2000, Lake Louise, Alta. , Canada .

Smith, Leonard A. and McSharry, Patrick E. (1998) Just do it: reductionism, modelling and black-box forecasting. In: International Workshop on Advanced Black-Box Techniques for Nonlinear Modeling: Theory and Applications, 08 - 10 July 1998, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Belgium.

Smith, Leonard A. and Gilmour, Isla (1997) Accountability and internal consistency in ensemble formation. In: Workshop on Predictability, 20 - 22 October 1997, Reading, UK.

Book

Smith, Leonard A. (2007) Chaos: a very short introduction. Very short introductions , 159 . Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK. ISBN 0192853783

Newspaper/Magazine Article

Smith, Leonard A. (2007) Letters to the editor: unproven theories have value. Times (30 Nov 2007)

Smith, Leonard A. (2000) Feeding frenzy is short of juice. Times Higher Education (18 Aug 2000)

Smith, Leonard A. (2000) Rough survey of how ticks all add up. Times Higher Education (26 May 2000)

Teaching Resource

Smith, Leonard A. (1997) The maintenance of uncertainty. [Teaching Resource]

This list was generated on Tue Sep 16 13:00:17 2014 BST.