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Is the funding of public national health systems sustainable over the long term? Evidence from eight OECD countries

Angelis, Aris and Tordrup, David and Kanavos, Panos (2016) Is the funding of public national health systems sustainable over the long term? Evidence from eight OECD countries. Global Policy Journal, 8 (S2). pp. 7-22. ISSN 1758-5880

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Identification Number: 10.1111/1758-5899.12341

Abstract

This study examines what impact macroeconomic and health-related factors have on the financial sustainability of health care systems; provides insights on additional financial resources required in order for demand for health care to be met; and reflects on needed reforms by health care systems in the near future. Publicly available data are used to identify the key variables influencing health spending. Statistical analysis is used to provide estimates of future required levels of health spending. Average macroeconomic performance, high debt levels, the need to contain fiscal deficits combined with adverse demographic developments, high outlays on health technologies and competing public sector needs, suggest that a funding gap between required and committed levels of health spending will exist in the next few years. This funding shortfall can be significant and in cumulative terms may range between 39 per cent and 61 per cent of 2012 health expenditure levels over the 2013–2017 period. Health care decision makers will need to place emphasis on outcomes-based reimbursement, set priorities based on efficiency rules, and implement organisational innovations in order to ensure affordability and sustainability. In the opposite case, contraction of services offered and exclusions from coverage are not unlikely.

Item Type: Article
Official URL: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/(IS...
Additional Information: © 2016 University of Durham and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
Subjects: R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine
Sets: Departments > Social Policy
Research centres and groups > LSE Health
Date Deposited: 06 Sep 2016 10:27
Last Modified: 23 Jun 2017 10:53
URI: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/67596

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