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The analytics of the Greek crisis: celebratory centenary issue

Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier and Philippon, Thomas and Vayanos, Dimitri (2016) The analytics of the Greek crisis: celebratory centenary issue. GreeSE papers, 100. London School of Economics and Political Science, Hellenic Observatory, London, UK.

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Identification Number: 100

Abstract

We provide an empirical and theoretical analysis of the Greek Crisis of 2010. We first benchmark the crisis against all episodes of sudden stops, sovereign debt crises, and lending boom/busts in emerging and advanced economies since 1980. The decline in Greece’s output, especially investment, is deeper and more persistent than in almost any crisis on record over that period. We then propose a stylized macro-finance model to understand what happened. We find that a severe macroeconomic adjustment was inevitable given the size of the fiscal imbalance; yet a sizable share of the crisis was also the consequence of the sudden stop that started in late 2009. Our model suggests that the size of the initial macro/financial imbalances can account for much of the depth of the crisis. When we simulate an emerging market sudden stop with initial debt levels (government, private, and external) of an advanced economy, we obtain a Greek crisis. Finally, in recent years, the lack of recovery appears driven by elevated levels of non-performing loans and strong price rigidities in product markets.

Item Type: Monograph (Working Paper)
Official URL: http://www2.lse.ac.uk/europeanInstitute/research/h...
Additional Information: © 2016 The Authors
Subjects: D History General and Old World > DF Greece
H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions
Sets: Departments > European Institute
Research centres and groups > Hellenic Observatory
Collections > GreeSE: Hellenic Observatory papers on Greece and Southeast Europe
Date Deposited: 04 Aug 2016 15:22
Last Modified: 21 Dec 2016 11:53
URI: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/67368

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