Combining national and constituency polling for forecasting

Hanretty, Chris, Lauderdale, Ben and Vivyan, Nick (2016) Combining national and constituency polling for forecasting. Electoral Studies, 41 . pp. 239-243. ISSN 0261-3794

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Abstract

We describe a method for forecasting British general elections by combining national and constituency polling. We reconcile national and constituency estimates through a new swing model.

Item Type:	Article
Official URL:	http://www.journals.elsevier.com/electoral-studies
Additional Information:	© 2015 Elsevier Ltd.
Library of Congress subject classification:	J Political Science > JA Political science (General)
Sets:	Departments > Methodology
Date Deposited:	03 Feb 2016 09:47
URL:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/65213/

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