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Predictable recoveries

Cai, Xiaoming, Den Haan, Wouter J. and Pinder, Jonathan (2016) Predictable recoveries. Economica, 83 (330). 307 - 337. ISSN 0013-0427

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Identification Number: 10.1111/ecca.12185


A random walk with drift is a good univariate representation of US GDP. This paper shows, however, that US economic downturns have been associated with pre- dictable short-term recoveries and with changes in long-term GDP forecasts that are substantially smaller than the initial drop. To detect these predictable changes, it is important to use a multivariate time series model. We discuss reasons why univariate representations can miss key characteristics of the underlying variable such as predictability, especially during recessions.

Item Type: Article
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Additional Information: © 2016 The London School of Economics and Political Science
Divisions: LSE
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
Q Science > QA Mathematics
JEL classification: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E37 - Forecasting and Simulation
Sets: Collections > Economists Online
Research centres and groups > LSE Health and Social Care
Research centres and groups > LSE Enterprise
Date Deposited: 01 Feb 2016 10:16
Last Modified: 20 Jul 2021 01:08

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