Library Header Image
LSE Research Online LSE Library Services

Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science

Open Science Collaboration, , Nosek, Brian A., Aarts, Alexander A., Anderson, Joanna E. and Kappes, Heather Barry (2015) Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science. Science, 349 (6251). aac4716-aac4716. ISSN 0036-8075

PDF - Accepted Version
Download (2MB) | Preview

Identification Number: 10.1126/science.aac4716


Reproducibility is a defining feature of science, but the extent to which it characterizes current research is unknown. We conducted replications of 100 experimental and correlational studies published in three psychology journals using high-powered designs and original materials when available. Replication effects were half the magnitude of original effects, representing a substantial decline. Ninety-seven percent of original studies had statistically significant results. Thirty-six percent of replications had statistically significant results; 47% of original effect sizes were in the 95% confidence interval of the replication effect size; 39% of effects were subjectively rated to have replicated the original result; and if no bias in original results is assumed, combining original and replication results left 68% with statistically significant effects. Correlational tests suggest that replication success was better predicted by the strength of original evidence than by characteristics of the original and replication teams.

Item Type: Article
Official URL:
Additional Information: © 2015 The American Association for the Advancement of Science
Divisions: Management
Subjects: B Philosophy. Psychology. Religion > BF Psychology
Sets: Departments > Management
Date Deposited: 27 Jan 2016 10:27
Last Modified: 20 Jan 2020 05:49
Funders: Center for Open Science, Laura and John Arnold Foundation

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item


Downloads per month over past year

View more statistics