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HIV/AIDS and cross-national convergence in life expectancy

Neumayer, Eric ORCID: 0000-0003-2719-7563 (2004) HIV/AIDS and cross-national convergence in life expectancy. Population and Development Review, 30 (4). pp. 727-742. ISSN 1728-4457

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Identification Number: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2004.00039.x


This article analyzes the impact of HIV/AIDS on the cross-national convergence in life expectancy as well as infant and child survival rates by comparing three scenarios. One is based on historical and future best guess estimated values given the existence of the epidemic. The second scenario assumes that the effect of the epidemic is much worse than expected. The final scenario is based on hypothetical values derived from estimations where the mortality caused by the epidemic is taken out. For life expectancy, convergence becomes stalled in the late 1980s (without weighting) or 1990s (with weighting). Convergence in infant and child survival rates does not become stalled, but slows down. These results are mainly due to the epidemic since all signs of stalled convergence or even divergence disappear in the ‘No AIDS-scenario’. Given the existence of the epidemic, however, the degree of inequality in life expectancy is only expected to be achieved again no earlier than 2015. If the epidemic turns out much worse than expected, there could be continuing divergence to 2050. No divergence is to be expected in infant and child survival rates in any of the scenarios.

Item Type: Article
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Additional Information: This is an electronic version of an Article published in Population and development review 30(4), pp. 727-742 © 2004 Blackwell Publishing. The definitive version is available at LSE has developed LSE Research Online so that users may access research output of the School. Copyright and Moral Rights for the papers on this site are retained by the individual authors and/or other copyright owners. Users may download and/or print one copy of any article(s) in LSE Research Online to facilitate their private study or for non-commercial research. You may not engage in further distribution of the material or use it for any profit-making activities or any commercial gain. You may freely distribute the URL (<>) of the LSE Research Online website.
Divisions: Geography & Environment
Subjects: H Social Sciences > H Social Sciences (General)
H Social Sciences > HV Social pathology. Social and public welfare. Criminology
Date Deposited: 18 May 2006
Last Modified: 16 May 2024 00:18

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