Cookies?
Library Header Image
LSE Research Online LSE Library Services

An assessment of the foundational assumptions inhigh-resolution climate projections: the case of UKCP09

Frigg, Roman, Smith, Leonard A. and Stainforth, David A. (2015) An assessment of the foundational assumptions inhigh-resolution climate projections: the case of UKCP09. Synthese, 192 (12). pp. 3979-4008. ISSN 1573-0964

[img]
Preview
PDF - Accepted Version
Download (1MB) | Preview

Identification Number: 10.1007/s11229-015-0739-8

Abstract

The United Kingdom Climate Impacts Programme’s UKCP09 project makes highresolution projections of the climate out to 2100 by post-processing the outputs of a large-scale global climate model. The aim of this paper is to describe and analyse the methodology used and then urge some caution. Given the acknowledged systematic, shared shortcomings in all current climate models, treating model outputs as decision relevant projections can be significantly misleading. In extrapolatory situations, such as projections of future climate change impacts, there is little reason to expect that postprocessing of model outputs can correct for the consequences of such errors. This casts doubt on our ability, today, to make trustworthy, high-resolution probabilistic projections out to the end of this century.

Item Type: Article
Official URL: http://link.springer.com/journal/11229
Additional Information: © 2015 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht
Divisions: Philosophy, Logic and Scientific Method
Grantham Research Institute
Statistics
CPNSS
Centre for Analysis of Time Series
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GF Human ecology. Anthropogeography
H Social Sciences > HA Statistics
Sets: Departments > Philosophy, Logic and Scientific Method
Research centres and groups > Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment
Departments > Statistics
Research centres and groups > Centre for Philosophy of Natural and Social Science (CPNSS)
Research centres and groups > Centre for the Analysis of Time Series (CATS)
Date Deposited: 21 Apr 2015 14:08
Last Modified: 20 Mar 2019 02:40
Projects: Managing Severe Uncertainty, FFI2012-37354
Funders: Economics and Social Science Research Council, Munich Re, AHRC, Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (MICINN)
URI: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/61635

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item

Downloads

Downloads per month over past year

View more statistics