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An assessment of the foundational assumptions inhigh-resolution climate projections: the case of UKCP09

Frigg, Roman ORCID: 0000-0003-0812-0907, Smith, Leonard A. and Stainforth, David A. ORCID: 0000-0001-6476-733X (2015) An assessment of the foundational assumptions inhigh-resolution climate projections: the case of UKCP09. Synthese, 192 (12). pp. 3979-4008. ISSN 1573-0964

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Identification Number: 10.1007/s11229-015-0739-8


The United Kingdom Climate Impacts Programme’s UKCP09 project makes highresolution projections of the climate out to 2100 by post-processing the outputs of a large-scale global climate model. The aim of this paper is to describe and analyse the methodology used and then urge some caution. Given the acknowledged systematic, shared shortcomings in all current climate models, treating model outputs as decision relevant projections can be significantly misleading. In extrapolatory situations, such as projections of future climate change impacts, there is little reason to expect that postprocessing of model outputs can correct for the consequences of such errors. This casts doubt on our ability, today, to make trustworthy, high-resolution probabilistic projections out to the end of this century.

Item Type: Article
Official URL:
Additional Information: © 2015 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht
Divisions: Grantham Research Institute
Centre for Analysis of Time Series
Philosophy, Logic and Scientific Method
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GF Human ecology. Anthropogeography
H Social Sciences > HA Statistics
Date Deposited: 21 Apr 2015 14:08
Last Modified: 08 Nov 2022 15:03
Projects: Managing Severe Uncertainty, FFI2012-37354
Funders: Economics and Social Science Research Council, Munich Re, AHRC, Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (MICINN)

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