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The impact of political violence on tourism : dynamic econometric estimation in a cross-national panel

Neumayer, Eric (2004) The impact of political violence on tourism : dynamic econometric estimation in a cross-national panel. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 48 (2). pp. 259-281. ISSN 1552-8766

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Abstract

The hypothesis that political violence deters tourism is mainly based on case study evidence and a few quantitative studies confined to a small sample of countries. This is the first comprehensive, general quantitative test of the impact of various forms of political violence on tourist arrivals. We employ two estimation techniques: a fixed-effects panel estimator with contemporaneous effects only and a dynamic generalized method of moments estimator, which allows for lagged effects of political violence on tourism. In both model specifications, we find strong evidence that human rights violations, conflict and other politically motivated violent events negatively impact upon tourist arrivals. In a dynamic model, autocratic regimes, even if they do not resort to violence, have lower numbers of tourist arrivals than more democratic regimes. We also find evidence for intra-regional negative spill-over and cross-regional substitution effects.

Item Type: Article
Official URL: http://www.sagepub.com/journal.aspx?pid=21
Additional Information: Published 2004 © SAGE Publications. LSE has developed LSE Research Online so that users may access research output of the School. Copyright and Moral Rights for the papers on this site are retained by the individual authors and/or other copyright owners. Users may download and/or print one copy of any article(s) in LSE Research Online to facilitate their private study or for non-commercial research. You may not engage in further distribution of the material or use it for any profit-making activities or any commercial gain. You may freely distribute the URL (<http://eprints.lse.ac.uk>) of the LSE Research Online website.
Library of Congress subject classification: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GV Recreation Leisure
H Social Sciences > H Social Sciences (General)
Sets: Departments > Geography and Environment
Rights: http://www.lse.ac.uk/library/usingTheLibrary/academicSupport/OA/depositYourResearch.aspx
Date Deposited: 18 May 2006
URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/614/

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