Tales of future weather

Hazeleger, W., van den Hurk, B.J.J.M., Min, E., van Oldenborgh, G.J., Petersen, A.C., Stainforth, D. A., Vasileiadou, E. and Smith, L. A. (2015) Tales of future weather. Nature Climate Change, 5 (2). pp. 107-113. ISSN 1758-678X

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Abstract

Society is vulnerable to extreme weather events and, by extension, to human impacts on future events. As climate changes weather patterns will change. The search is on for more effective methodologies to aid decision-makers both in mitigation to avoid climate change and in adaptation to changes. The traditional approach uses ensembles of climate model simulations, statistical bias correction, downscaling to the spatial and temporal scales relevant to decision-makers, and then translation into quantities of interest. The veracity of this approach cannot be tested, and it faces in-principle challenges. Alternatively, numerical weather prediction models in a hypothetical climate setting can provide tailored narratives for high-resolution simulations of high-impact weather in a future climate. This 'tales of future weather' approach will aid in the interpretation of lower-resolution simulations. Arguably, it potentially provides complementary, more realistic and more physically consistent pictures of what future weather might look like.

Item Type:	Article
Official URL:	http://www.nature.com/nclimate/index.html
Additional Information:	© 2015 Rights Managed by Nature Publishing Group
Library of Congress subject classification:	G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences
Sets:	Research centres and groups > Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment Departments > Statistics Research centres and groups > Centre for the Analysis of Time Series (CATS)
Funders:	Knowledge for Climate Theme 6 project, NWO/KvK project Bridging the Gap between stakeholders, LSE’s Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, ESRC, Munich Re, UK EPSRC
Projects:	NWO 830.10.008, EP/K013661/1
Date Deposited:	11 Mar 2015 14:52
URL:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/61171/

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