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The myopia of imperfect climate models: the case of UKCP09

Frigg, Roman, Smith, Leonard A. and Stainforth, David A. (2013) The myopia of imperfect climate models: the case of UKCP09. Philosophy of Science, 80 (5). pp. 886-897. ISSN 0031-8248

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Abstract

The United Kingdom Climate Impacts Program’s UKCP09 project makes high-resolution forecasts of climate during the 21st century using state of the art global climate models. The aim of this paper is to introduce and analyze the methodology used and then urge some caution. Given the acknowledged systematic errors in all current climate models, treating model outputs as decision relevant probabilistic forecasts can be seriously misleading. This casts doubt on our ability, today, to make trustworthy, high-resolution predictions out to the end of this century.

Item Type: Article
Official URL: http://www.press.uchicago.edu/ucp/journals/journal...
Additional Information: © 2013 Philosophy of Science Association. Published by University of Chicago Press
Library of Congress subject classification: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences
J Political Science > JN Political institutions (Europe) > JN101 Great Britain
Sets: Departments > Philosophy, Logic and Scientific Method
Departments > Statistics
Research centres and groups > Centre for Philosophy of Natural and Social Science (CPNSS)
Research centres and groups > Centre for the Analysis of Time Series (CATS)
Rights: http://www.lse.ac.uk/library/usingTheLibrary/academicSupport/OA/depositYourResearch.aspx
Funders: Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment , Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy, Economics and Social Science Research Council and Munich Re, Arts and Humanities Research Council, Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (MICINN)
Projects: ‘Managing Severe Uncertainty’ project (grant FFI2012-37354)
Date Deposited: 09 Dec 2013 11:30
URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/54818/

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