Frigg, Roman, Bradley, Seamus, Du, Hailiang and Smith, Leonard A. (2014) Laplace's demon and the adventures of his apprentices. Philosophy of Science . ISSN 0031-8248 (In Press)
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The sensitive dependence on initial conditions (SDIC) associated with nonlinear models imposes limitations on the models’ predictive power. We draw attention to an additional limitation than has been under-appreciated, namely structural model error (SME). A model has SME if the model-dynamics differ from the dynamics in the target system. If a nonlinear model has only the slightest SME, then its ability to generate decision-relevant predictions is compromised. Given a perfect model, we can take the effects of SDIC into account by substituting probabilistic predictions for point predictions. This route is foreclosed in the case of SME.
|Additional Information:||© 2014 University of Chicago Press|
|Library of Congress subject classification:||B Philosophy. Psychology. Religion > B Philosophy (General)
G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences
|Sets:||Departments > Philosophy, Logic and Scientific Method
Departments > Statistics
Research centres and groups > Centre for Philosophy of Natural and Social Science (CPNSS)
Research centres and groups > Centre for the Analysis of Time Series (CATS)
|Date Deposited:||09 Dec 2013 11:22|
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Laplace's demon and climate change. (deposited 19 Apr 2013 15:14)
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