Dixon, Mark J. and Pope, Peter (2004) The value of statistical forecasts in the UK association football betting market. International Journal of Forecasting, 20 (4). pp. 697-711. ISSN 0169-2070
Abstract
In this paper, we evaluate the economic significance of statistical forecasts of UK Association Football match outcomes in relation to betting market prices. We present a detailed comparison of odds set by different bookmakers in relation to forecast model predictions, and analyse the potential for arbitrage across firms. We also examine extreme odds biases. A detailed re-examination of match result odds and a new examination of correct score odds for the period 1993 to 1996 suggest that the market is inefficient.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Official URL: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/01692... |
| Additional Information: | © 2004 Elsevier B.V. |
| Library of Congress subject classification: | H Social Sciences > HF Commerce |
| Journal of Economic Literature Classification System: | M - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting > M1 - Business Administration |
| Sets: | Departments > Accounting |
| Date Deposited: | 30 Oct 2013 10:25 |
| URL: | http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/53901/ |
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