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The structure of economic modeling of the potential impacts of climate change: grafting gross underestimation of risk onto already narrow science models

Stern, Nicholas (2013) The structure of economic modeling of the potential impacts of climate change: grafting gross underestimation of risk onto already narrow science models. Journal of Economic Literature, 51 (3). pp. 838-859. ISSN 0022-0515

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Abstract

Scientists describe the scale of the risks from unmanaged climate change as potentially immense. However, the scientific models, because they omit key factors that are hard to capture precisely, appear to substantially underestimate these risks. Many economic models add further gross underassessment of risk because the assumptions built into the economic modeling on growth, damages and risks, come close to assuming directly that the impacts and costs will be modest and close to excluding the possibility of catastrophic outcomes. A new generation of models is needed in all three of climate science, impact and economics with a still stronger focus on lives and livelihoods, including the risks of large-scale migration and conflicts.

Item Type: Article
Official URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/jel/
Additional Information: © 2013 American Economic Association
Library of Congress subject classification: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences
Sets: Research centres and groups > Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment
Research centres and groups > India Observatory
Research centres and groups > Asia Research Centre
Research centres and groups > Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines (STICERD)
Rights: http://www.lse.ac.uk/library/usingTheLibrary/academicSupport/OA/depositYourResearch.aspx
Date Deposited: 21 Oct 2013 16:17
URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/53695/

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