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Fiscal discipline and the cost of public debt service: some estimates for OECD countries

Ardagna, Silvia, Caselli, Francesco and Lane, Timothy (2004) Fiscal discipline and the cost of public debt service: some estimates for OECD countries. . National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA., USA.

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We use a panel of 16 OECD countries over several decades to investigate the effects of government debts and deficits on long-term interest rates. In simple static specifications, a one-percentage-point increase in the primary deficit relative to GDP increases contemporaneous long-term interest rates by about 10 basis points. In a vector autoregression (VAR), the same shock leads to a cumulative increase of almost 150 basis points after 10 years. The effect of debt on interest rates is non-linear: only for countries with above-average levels of debt does an increase in debt affect the interest rate. World fiscal policy is also important: an increase in total OECD-government borrowing increases each country's interest rates. However, domestic fiscal policy continues to affect domestic interest rates even after controlling for worldwide debts and deficits.

Item Type: Monograph (Working Paper)
Official URL:
Additional Information: © 2004 Silvia Ardagna, Francesco Caselli, and Timothy Lane.
Divisions: Centre for Economic Performance
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HJ Public Finance
JEL classification: H - Public Economics > H6 - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
Date Deposited: 03 Jun 2008 14:33
Last Modified: 16 May 2024 11:35

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