de Grauwe, Paul and Rovira Kaltwasser, Pablo (2012) Animal spirits in the foreign exchange market. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 36 (8). pp. 1176-1192. ISSN 0165-1889
Abstract
It is traditionally assumed in finance models that the fundamental value of an asset is known with certainty. In this paper we depart from that assumption. We propose a simple model of the exchange rate in which agents have biased and unbiased beliefs about the fundamental rate. We show that such a model produces waves of optimism and pessimism unrelated to the underlying fundamental value. In addition, the model shows that in a world characterized by the existence of heterogeneous beliefs about the fundamental, exchange rate movements can be remarkably complex even if only fundamentalist traders operate in the market.
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