Cookies?
Library Header Image
LSE Research Online LSE Library Services

The term structure of inflation expectations

Chernov, Mikhail and Mueller, Philippe (2012) The term structure of inflation expectations. Journal of Financial Economics, 106 (2). pp. 367-394. ISSN 0304-405X

Full text not available from this repository.

Abstract

We use information in the term structure of survey-based forecasts of inflation to estimate a factor hidden in the nominal yield curve. We construct a model that accommodates forecasts over multiple horizons from multiple surveys and Treasury real and nominal yields by allowing for differences between risk-neutral, subjective, and objective probability measures. We establish that model-based inflation expectations are driven by inflation, output, and one latent factor. We find that this factor affects inflation expectations at all horizons but has almost no effect on the nominal yields; that is, the latent factor is hidden. We show that this hidden factor is not related to either current and past inflation or the standard set of macro variables studied in the literature. Consistent with the theoretical property of a hidden factor, our model outperforms a standard macro-finance model in its forecasting of inflation and yields.

Item Type: Article
Official URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/03044...
Additional Information: © 2012 Elsevier
Library of Congress subject classification: H Social Sciences > HG Finance
Sets: Departments > Finance
Rights: http://www.lse.ac.uk/library/usingTheLibrary/academicSupport/OA/depositYourResearch.aspx
Date Deposited: 02 Aug 2012 13:20
URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/45063/

Actions (login required)

Record administration - authorised staff only Record administration - authorised staff only