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Use of an age-period-cohort model to reveal the impact of cigarette smoking on trends in twentieth-century adult cohort mortality in England and Wales

Murphy, Michael J. and Di Cesare, Mariachiara (2012) Use of an age-period-cohort model to reveal the impact of cigarette smoking on trends in twentieth-century adult cohort mortality in England and Wales. Population Studies, 66 (3). pp. 259-277. ISSN 0032-4728

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Abstract

We use an age-period-cohort (APC) model to estimate the contribution of smoking-related mortality to cohort changes in adult mortality in Britain since 1950. We show that lung cancer and overall mortality can be satisfactorily modelled using cohort relative risk and a fixed age pattern. The results of the model suggest that smoking by itself can account for a substantial fraction of change in cohort mortality for those born around the first half of the twentieth century. In particular, smoking provides an explanation for the higher-than-average improvement in the mortality of both males and females born around 1930. Our confidence in the correctness of the results of the models is strengthened by the fact that they are very similar to those of the Peto–Lopez and Preston–Glei–Wilmoth models that estimate the contribution of smoking-related to overall mortality.

Item Type: Article
Official URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/rpst20
Additional Information: © 2012 Population Investigation Committee
Library of Congress subject classification: H Social Sciences > H Social Sciences (General)
R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine > RA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicine
Sets: Departments > Social Policy
Research centres and groups > LSE Health
Rights: http://www.lse.ac.uk/library/usingTheLibrary/academicSupport/OA/depositYourResearch.aspx
Date Deposited: 29 May 2012 14:31
URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/44157/

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