Manacorda, Marco, Miguel, Edward and Vigorito, Andrea (2011) Government transfers and political support. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 3 (3). pp. 1-28. ISSN 1945-7782
This paper estimates the impact of a large anti-poverty cash transfer program, the Uruguayan PANES, on political support for the government that implemented it. Using the discontinuity in program assignment based on a pretreatment eligibility score, we find that beneficiary households are 11 to 13 percentage points more likely to favor the current government relative to the previous government. Political support effects persist after the program ends. Our results are consistent with theories of rational but poorly informed voters who use policy to infer politicians' redistributive preferences or competence, as well as with behavioral economics explanations grounded in reciprocity.
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