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Scenarios and planning for alternative London futures - or making a drama out of a strategy

Gordon, Ian R. (2010) Scenarios and planning for alternative London futures - or making a drama out of a strategy. In: Kochan, Ben and Scanlon, Kathleen, (eds.) London: Coping With Austerity. LSE London, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, pp. 49-56. ISBN 9780853284598

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This chapter responds to the decision to base the latest version of The London Plan, like its predecessors, on a single deterministic view of the future. It argues for adoption of a different approach, giving explicit attention to a number of credible alternative futures which the city may face, in the context of substantial economic and demographic uncertainties. As a modest illustration it is shown how substantially quantitative forecasts could be affected if the government were to succeed in reducing international migration to the level proposed by its Conservative members. More generally, it is suggested that resistance to exploring scenarios is likely to reflect both over-reliance on status quo assumptions, and political obstacles to explicitly addressing some of the sources of real uncertainty.

Item Type: Book Section
Official URL:
Additional Information: © 2010 Author
Divisions: Geography & Environment
Spatial Economics Research Centre
LSE London
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > G Geography (General)
H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD100 Land Use
J Political Science > JS Local government Municipal government
JEL classification: R - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics > R5 - Regional Government Analysis > R52 - Land Use and Other Regulations
Sets: Departments > Geography and Environment
Research centres and groups > Spatial Economics Research Centre
Research centres and groups > LSE London Centre for Urban and Metropolitan Research
Date Deposited: 11 Jul 2011 14:35
Last Modified: 30 Jun 2021 23:30
Funders: HEIF

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