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If we build, will they pay?: predicting property price effects of transport innovations

Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M. (2011) If we build, will they pay?: predicting property price effects of transport innovations. SERC Discussion Papers, SERCDP0075. Spatial Economics Research Centre (SERC), London School of Economics and Political Sciences, London, UK.

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Abstract

In this study I develop a partial equilibrium approach for the prediction of property price effects of transport network extensions. It combines a gravity-type labor market accessibility indicator with a transport decision model that takes into account the urban rail network architecture, allows for mode switching and relaxes the assumption that stations represent perfect substitutes. The model is calibrated to the Greater London Area and is used to predict property price effects of the 1999 Jubilee Line and DLR extension. A considerable degree of heterogeneity is predicted both in terms of the magnitude as well as the spatial extent of price effects around new stations. A quasi-experimental property price analysis reveals that the model performs well in predicting the observed average accessibility effect. Relative transport costs associated with distinct transport modes are identified from the data by calibrating the model of observed property price adjustments.

Item Type: Monograph (Working Paper)
Official URL: http://www.spatialeconomics.ac.uk/SERC/publication...
Additional Information: © 2011 Gabriel Ahlfeldt
Library of Congress subject classification: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > G Geography (General)
H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions
H Social Sciences > HE Transportation and Communications
Journal of Economic Literature Classification System: O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development
Sets: Research centres and groups > Spatial Economics Research Centre
Collections > Economists Online
Rights: http://www.lse.ac.uk/library/usingTheLibrary/academicSupport/OA/depositYourResearch.aspx
Identification Number: SERCDP0075
Date Deposited: 24 Mar 2011 15:04
URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/33595/

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